US Presidential Election Odds 2024: Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump?

Posted By Derek Helling on November 9, 2020 - Last Updated on November 10, 2020
Election odds 2024 Presidential President Kamala Harris Donald Trump

After a 2020 Presidential Election boasted historic voter turnout, the 2024 Presidential Election may make some history of its own. That’s if the contest proves international oddsmakers right.

Current President-Elect Joe Biden is not the frontrunner in the latest odds for 2024 despite the fact that he just garnered more votes than any other presidential candidate in US history. The frontrunner does have a strong connection to Biden, however.

A look at the latest US 2024 presidential election odds

If these books prove to be worthwhile soothsayers, the first female Vice-President Elect will become the first female President-Elect in 2024. Kamala Harris could move from having a seat in the US Senate, to presiding over the same body, to giving State of the Union addresses. Here are the top 10 contenders as of right now:

CandidateSkyBet (UK)William Hill (UK)
Kamala Harris+350+350
Joe Biden+500+450
Donald Trump+1000+800
Mike Pence+1100+1000
Nikki Haley+1400+1400
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1600+1400
Ivanka Trump+2500+2500
Dwayne Johnson+2500+2500
Pete Buttigieg+3300+3300
Tucker Carlson+3300+2500

The current field is much larger than just those 10 candidates, however. At some United Kingdom books, the options include as many as 40 different people. The list includes names like Michelle Obama, Ted Cruz, Kanye West, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Ann Coulter, Oprah Winfrey, George Clooney and Meghan Markle.

If Harris even receives the Democratic nomination it would be a historic occasion in many ways. She would be the first African-American woman to receive a major party nomination. Also, thus far in US history, no party has ever failed to nominate an incumbent president for reelection when he’s been eligible.

Ocasio-Cortez’s nomination would be historic as well because of her age. She would be the youngest candidate on a major ticket by far, as she would only be 33/34 when she began her campaign.

Yes, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez would be eligible

Questions about AOC’s eligibility have arisen because of her age. The US Constitution does not require candidates to be at least 35 years of age when they file the paperwork to run for president.

It only mandates that age to actually assume the office. She would be of age not only before the election would take place but more importantly, by the time she would actually be sworn in. Her 35th birthday would be Oct. 13, 2024.

There’s some legal precedent for allowing people who haven’t yet reached the requisite age for a federal office to run for that position regardless in the US Senate. One of those examples involves Biden, ironically.

In 1972, when he ran for the Senate for the first time, he was only 29 years old. The Constitution requires sitting Senators to be at least 30. In much the same way, he turned 30 before he actually took his seat in the upper chamber of Congress.

If Ocasio-Cortez faces Donald Trump in the general election, it would be a rare instance in that way as well. There has only been one other US president to serve non-consecutive terms.

Grover Cleveland and Trump

The presidential election of 1884 put Democrat Grover Cleveland into the White House. Four years later, Cleveland would run for reelection against Republican Benjamin Harrison. Harrison carried the electoral college that year.

In 1892, the same two candidates faced off again, as the Democrats renominated Cleveland. This time, however, Cleveland would claim 277 electoral college votes.

In US major party history, this is the only other example of the renomination of a defeated incumbent president. UK sportsbooks expect Trump to have many challengers for the Republication nomination in 2024, should he decide to seek that prize.

Regardless of who the candidates are, it’s highly unlikely that bettors in the US will be able to wager upon the 2024 presidential election. That would require a significant shift in the legal landscape.

Why can’t bettors in the US wager on elections?

Some states have laws against these markets, while others ban it in their regulations for sportsbooks. The primary concern is integrity.

Lawmakers and regulators fear that allowing wagering on elections will affect how people vote. Ideally, you want people to vote for an office based on who the best candidate is, not to increase the chances that their bets will pay off.

It’s hard to know for sure whether legal betting on political races would have a significant impact, as there’s no data to cite on the subject. There doesn’t seem to be sufficient momentum to change this anytime soon.

For the foreseeable future, US bettors will be limited to the kind of free-play pools that DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook offered this year.

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Derek Helling

Derek Helling is a freelance journalist who resides in Chicago. He is a 2013 graduate of the University of Iowa and covers the intersections of sports with business and the law.

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