The Premier League returns this weekend with a full billing from Friday evening through to Sunday afternoon, and we’re back searching for Premier League picks value utilizing expected goals metrics.
Results didn’t quite go our way last weekend, with Brentford conceding a last-minute winner to Leeds and Crystal Palace not getting anything from a spirited performance against Man Utd.
However, we retain a +8.79-unit profit from our Premier League picks so far this campaign. Hopefully this weekend will allow us to increase this figure and get us moving in the right direction.
We have bet one unit on each of the following matches, unless stated otherwise. Click on the odds below to bet now.
Norwich vs. Manchester United
Saturday, Dec. 11, 12:30 p.m. ET
The late kick-off on Saturday sees Ralf Rangnick’s Manchester United make the trip to Norfolk to visit Carrow Road. The bookmakers are giving Norwich just a 13.2% chance of victory – an incredibly small probability.
The Canaries actually turned out pretty well last week against Tottenham, despite the score perhaps suggesting otherwise. The 3-0 scoreline flattered Spurs considerably, with the xG scoreline reading 1.63-1.30 in favour of Conte’s men. Norwich had their chances and could’ve easily caused an upset.
Prior to this game, Norwich had achieved xG wins against Wolves and Newcastle. In short, the Canaries have actually been playing quite well since Dean Smith took charge.
Man Utd’s 1-0 victory over Crystal Palace last weekend was also a lot tighter than the scoreline suggests. They accumulated just 0.89(xG) against the Eagles, conceding 0.57(xG) in the process.
Based on recent form, we think there’s a good chance of an upset in this fixture.
Best Available Norwich Odds
Man City vs. Wolves
Saturday, Dec. 11, 7:30 a.m. ET
Wolves travel to the Etihad this weekend on a weird patch of form, in which they’ve alternatively lost and then won on xG in each of their last five matches. Strong performances against West Ham and Burnley have been interceded with poor showings against Crystal Palace, Norwich and Liverpool.
Wolves matches so far this season have seen the least total xG accumulated (i.e. the xG created by both sides) versus any other team in the league – in other words, they’re weak in attack and strong in defense.
Man City are rated as the best team in the league when it comes to xG. Their defense has been particularly impressive, conceding just 10.02(xG) over the fifteen matches they’ve played so far.
However, our model has flagged that the bookies are underpricing the odds of a draw occurring (11.9%). This is likely due to the low-scoring nature of Wolves’ matches. If they can keep Man City’s attack at bay, then there’s value in betting the draw in this one.
Best Available Draw Odds
Crystal Palace vs. Everton
Sunday, Dec. 12, 11:39 a.m. ET
Everton make the trip to the capital this weekend to face Crystal Palace in what is an intriguing clash.
Everton are net -6.62(xG) over the last eight gameweeks, as pressure mounts on Rafa Benitez. Crystal Palace are +2.56(xG) in their results over the same period, outlining the difference in form between the two sides.
The bookies are rightly favoring Crystal Palace for this match, offering odds of 42.7%. However, our model suggests they haven’t gone far enough in their estimations and believes this match will be more one-sided. As such, we’re there’s some value betting on a Crystal Palace victory.
Best Available Crystal Palace Odds
Burnley vs. West Ham
Sunday, Dec. 12, 9 a.m. ET
The operators are giving Burnley little chance of causing an upset against West Ham, pricing the Clarets at just 26.7%. These are very long odds for a home Premier League team who aren’t facing a ‘big 6’ opponent.
West Ham’s win over Chelsea last weekend was undeniably impressive, but prior to that they recorded three consecutive xG losses (picking up just one point in the process).
They accumulated 1.70(xG) across these matches against Wolves, Man City and Brighton. This highlights their struggle to create chances of late, with Antonio not quite reaching the heights that he achieved earlier on in the season.
Our model suggests this match will be more even than the bookies are suggesting, so we’ll be staking one-half unit on a home victory among this week’s Premier League picks.