Premier League Picks Utilizing Expected Goals (xG): Gameweek 13

Written By The xG Philosophy on November 23, 2021
premier league picks

Last week represented our worst of the season so far. None of the matches quite swung our way utilizing expected goals metrics, but you’d expect to get a handful of weeks like that over the course of any given campaign with English Premier League picks.

Given most of our suggestions are high-priced longshots where we see potential value, we tend to lose more often than we win – the hope is that our wins are far bigger than our losses and that we come out ahead overall.

We still retain a profit of +14.16pts after nine weeks of Premier League picks utilizing expected goals data. We’re hoping GW13 won’t spell bad luck for us.

For a further explanation of how we use xG to identify the value in the market, check out our “What is xG?” page or pick up a copy of “The Expected Goals Philosophy“.

We have bet one unit on each of the following matches, unless stated otherwise.

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Burnley vs. Tottenham

Sunday, Nov. 28, 9 a.m. ET

xG Analysis

Our featured match of the weekend comes from Turf Moor, as Tottenham make the trip up North to face Burnley on Sunday afternoon.

Spurs squeezed past Leeds this weekend, in what was very much a game of two halves. Tottenham created just 0.07(xG) in the first period but went on to triumph in the end.

Despite this, their xG data this season remains woeful. They have created just 13.54(xG) from their twelve matches – that’s less than half of what Liverpool have generated.

Burnley are a difficult team to visit at the best of times, and recent draws against Chelsea and Crystal Palace will mean that spirits are high in the Clarets camp.

The bookies are offering Burnley a 26.7% chance of victory, but we think there is value to be had at these odds.

Best Available Burnley Odds

Chelsea vs. Manchester United

Sunday, Nov. 28, 11:30 a.m. ET

xG Analysis

The highest profile match this weekend sees manager-less Man Utd travel to Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea have been the luckiest team in the league this season from an xG perspective. They’ve scored 30 goals from just 23.17(xG) and conceded 4 goals from 12.15(xGA) – meaning you’d expect them to be doing worse at both ends of the pitch given the quality of chances that they’re creating and conceding.

Man Utd have obviously been poor from an Expected Goals point of view, but they’re being priced at just 15.6% to emerge victorious in West London. Those sort of odds are usually reserved for teams scrapping in relegation battles, not possessing stars such as Ronaldo and Fernandes.

It’s unknown how the visitors will set up given the recent departure of Solskjaer, but we don’t think this will be an absolute thrashing like the bookies’ odds suggest. As such, we’ll be staking one unit on a Man Utd victory.

Best Available Manchester United Odds

Manchester City vs. West Ham United

Sunday, Nov. 28, 9 a.m. ET

xG Analysis

Sunday afternoon also sees Man City host West Ham, with both sides currently occupying a berth in the top four positions in the Premier League table.

The Hammers have been on-song this season and are fully deserving of their current position based on Expected Points (the number of points you would expect each team to have amassed, given the chances that they’ve created and conceded).

Man City have been the xG kings over the last few seasons and are looking really good again this campaign. However, we’re happy to take a punt on the visitors with West Ham being priced at just 9.1%.

We see value in these odds and believe the Hammers have enough quality to upset the hosts, as they did a month or so ago by knocking them out of the League Cup.

Best Available West Ham Odds

Leicester City vs. Watford

Sunday, Nov. 28, 9 a.m. ET

xG Analysis

Watford make the trip to Leicester this weekend off a great result (and xG performance) against Man Utd. The Hornets have proven themselves a dangerous team to play against at times this season, as Everton, Norwich and Aston Villa have also found out.

Leicester haven’t been able to find the sort of form that they showed last season. The Foxes are currently ranked as the 15th best team in the league on Expected Points, and have a total differential of -3.71(xG) over the course of the campaign so far.

The bookies make the hosts comfortable favorites for this game, pricing them at 59.9% compared to Watford’s 17.0%. This seems slightly too exaggerated in favor of Leicester. So, we’ll be backing the Hornets in this week’s Premier League picks.

Best Available Watford Odds

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