Premier League Matchweek 5 Odds: Expected Goals Reveal Betting Value

Written By The xG Philosophy on September 17, 2021

We use Expected Goals data to take a look at some of the best value in the English Premier League matchweek 5 bets this weekend.

For an explanation as to what xG is and how it can be used to succeed in the betting markets, check out our “What is xG? page or pick up a copy of The Expected Goals Philosophy.

Each of these are matches I have bet one unit on myself, unless otherwise noted.

EPL Odds And Fixtures

Wolverhampton vs. Brentford

The biggest longshot we’ll target among Premier League matchweek 5 bets. Brentford have made a strong start to their life as a Premier League club. In fact, they’ve accumulated more xG than their opposition in all four of their matches so far this season.

The Bees also boast the second-best defense in the league so far this campaign, conceding just 2.57(xG). This is bettered only by Man City (1.92).

They face a Wolves side that has also started strongly according to xG, but the fact that the bookies are only giving Brentford a 20.4% chance of victory means we’re happy to stake one unit on the away team.

Burnley vs. Arsenal

Arsenal’s poor start to the season has resulted in a lot of ridicule from the fans and the media.

However, it’s been incredibly difficult to judge their true ability based on the matches that they’ve played so far. First, they faced an energetic Brentford team whilst missing several key players. Next up they faced Chelsea and Man City – hardly the easiest barometers from which we can learn how strong they are.

Last weekend’s match against Norwich was the first time we truly got to assess their ability. Granted, the Canaries aren’t the strongest opposition, but the xG scoreline from the match still read Arsenal (2.40) 1-0 (0.54) Norwich.

We’re expecting another strong performance against similar level opposition in Burnley.

The bookmakers are giving Arsenal a 48.5% chance of victory. My model is suggesting they actually have a 54.8% likelihood, and as such, there’s some value on this potential outcome at plus money.

Aston Villa vs. Everton

Everton travel to Villa Park this weekend, having created more xG than their opponents in each Premier League game that they’ve played so far this season.

Our model is giving them a 44.9% chance of victory against Aston Villa, compared to the sportsbooks’ 32.8%.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin will be a miss for the visiting team, but we feel that the bookies are still undervaluing their chance of victory. I like a wager on the Toffees to triumph in this fixture.

Brighton vs. Leicester

Leicester are yet to have accumulated more xG than their opponents in a Premier League match this season.

They’ve created just 3.52(xG) over the course of these fixtures, the lowest total of any team in the division other than newly-promoted sides Watford and Norwich.

Their hosts, Brighton, have had a good start to the campaign. They finally appear to be finishing their chances, after ending the season in 5th place in the Premier League xG Table in 2020/21.

The bookies are giving Brighton a 37.9% chance of victory, but our model is giving them a 46.8% probability of success. Given these factors, this is a two-unit play for me.

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