This weekend sees potential Premier League bets decimated by postponements due to the increasing volume of COVID cases in a number of clubs. However, my model has still picked out three value bets from the games that remain.
This midweek’s results were tough ones to take, with Crystal Palace battering Southampton but conceding two very unlikely long-shots (worth 0.05 xG and 0.02 xG, respectively). Everton gave us hope of nicking something away at Chelsea in what would’ve landed us a cool +14.87pts return, but could only muster a draw at Stamford Bridge.
This column sits at +4.63pts in profit for the season so far, heading towards the halfway point of the EPL schedule.
I have bet one unit on each of the following matches, unless stated otherwise.
Leeds vs. Arsenal
Saturday, Dec. 18, 12:30 p.m. ET
Arsenal make the trip to Elland Road in one of only two games still going ahead on Saturday. The bookies are pricing the Gunners at 50.8% to triumph in this fixture, indicating they expect them to dominate their hosts.
Arsenal are currently net -0.08(xG) throughout the season so far. In other words, they’ve created slightly less in the way of scoring opportunities than they’ve conceded.
This figure is largely down to their form away from home – incredibly, they haven’t won a single game on xG away from home so far this season. Their net xG difference away from home is an astounding -10.53 xG.
Leeds are undergoing their own struggles at the moment, particularly with a number of injuries within the squad, but I find there’s value in backing them at odds of 25.0%.
Best Available Leeds United Odds
Tottenham vs. Liverpool
Sunday, Dec. 19, 11:30 a.m. ET
The late kick off on Sunday sees Tottenham play host to Liverpool in what will only be Spurs’ third game since Gameweek 12, having had three of the last five fixtures postponed due to COVID.
Tottenham have averaged -0.19(xG) fewer than their opponents in Premier League matches so far this season – that’s the worst record of any of the league’s ‘Big 6’ teams.
They face a rampant Liverpool team who have accumulated a remarkable 45.12(xG) so far this season (more than 6.00 xG greater than Man City, their closest rivals).
The bookies are pricing Liverpool as favorites at a price of 62.5%, but our model suggests the game will be even more one-sided than this and we’ll be backing the visitors accordingly.
Best Available Liverpool Odds
Aston Villa vs. Burnley
Saturday, Dec. 18, 10 a.m. ET
The first clash of the weekend features Aston Villa welcoming Burnley to Villa Park.
Both Burnley and Aston Villa have struggled to create chances this campaign, with the teams ranking as 19th and 16th respectively in terms of xG created.
That said, both teams fall within the top half of the table when it comes to not conceding xG, having conceded just 24.66 xG and 23.51 xG, respectively.
As such, we expect this to be a low-scoring affair and our model is suggesting that the draw is undervalued at odds of 25.0% among this week’s Premier League bets utilizing xG.
Best Available Draw Odds
The best available draw odds are featured in the game tile above, the middle selection among moneyline options.