Premier League Bets, xG Data: Undervalued Underdogs For Midweek Matches

Written By The xG Philosophy on December 13, 2021
premier league picks

Another midweek round of Premier League bets awaits us, with all twenty teams back in action from Tuesday through Thursday this week.

This weekend’s EPL fixtures saw us come agonizingly close to some large pay-outs. Wolves held Man City to just 0.37(xG) in the first half, before Raul Jimenez’s red card turned the game on its head. Norwich were also in contention against Manchester United, before a controversial penalty decision went against the Canaries.

We did manage to pick Crystal Palace’s win against Everton at odds of 42.7%, but the weekend could have been incredibly profitable if one of the above results had also landed. As it stands, we retain 7.63 units profit for the season so far.

For a further explanation of how we use Premier League xG to identify the value in the market, check out our “What is xG?” page or pick up a copy of “The Expected Goals Philosophy“.

We have bet one unit on each of the following matches, unless stated otherwise. Click on the odds below to bet now.

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Norwich vs. Aston Villa

Tuesday, Dec. 14, 2:45 p.m. ET

xG Analysis

Norwich will play host to Aston Villa on Tuesday evening, having been unlucky not to get anything from recent results against Tottenham and Man Utd. The Canaries look a new side under Dean Smith, playing with more purpose and intensity.

This is borne out in their Expected Goals data – they are averaging 1.15(xG) per game under Smith, compared to 0.82(xG) under Farke (note that two of Smith’s games have also been against members of the ‘Big 6’ in Spurs and Man Utd).

This match is packed full of narrative, as Smith welcomes his old team to Carrow Road. The former Aston Villa boss knows their squad inside out, which should afford Norwich a slight advantage.

Gerrard’s start as Villa boss has seen a couple of good victories, although the xG data suggests they were lucky to get a result against Crystal Palace a few weeks ago. He can’t really be assessed on the defeats to Liverpool and Man City, the best two teams in the division, according to xG.

The bookies are giving Norwich a 29.0% chance of recording a home victory, and we believe there is value in backing them at this price in this week’s Premier League bets.

Best Available Norwich Odds

Crystal Palace vs. Southhampton

Wednesday, Dec. 15, 2:30 p.m. ET

xG Analysis

Wednesday evening sees Crystal Palace welcome Southampton to Selhurst Park. The hosts have performed admirably this season according to xG and currently rank sixth in the Expected Points table (just above Arsenal and Man Utd).

The Eagles have lost just three of their last eleven matches on xG, conceding an average of just 1.01(xG) across those matches.

Southampton, on the other hand, have performed below average this campaign. They are net negative when it comes to their xG difference, creating 20.50(xG) and conceding 22.77(xG).

The bookies are favoring Crystal Palace in this clash, pricing them at 43.5% (marginally more than they priced them against Everton last week, at 42.7%). However, our model once again suggests that this price is unreflective of the true chance of a Palace win – we’ll be staking 1pt on them to deliver for us again.

Best Available Crystal Palace Odds

Burnley vs. Watford

Wednesday, Dec. 15, 2:30 p.m. ET

xG Analysis

The bookies are pricing Watford at 27.4% to defeat Burnley at Turf Moor this Wednesday evening.

Burnley have struggled to make an impact in the Premier League this season, with their attack causing particular issues – they’ve created just 15.62 xG in the league so far (the third lowest total).

The Hornets have also struggled this term, although they have won four of their last eight matches on xG.

Our model is suggesting the game should be more evenly matched than the bookies are making out. As such, we’ll be staking one unit on an away team victory among this week’s Premier League bets.

Best Available Watford Odds

Chelsea vs. Everton

Thursday, Dec. 16, 2:45 p.m. ET

xG Analysis

Everton make the trip to Stamford Bridge on Thursday evening to face a Chelsea team who have looked far from their best in recent weeks.

The Blues needed the help of two penalties to overcome Leeds at the weekend, having been beaten by West Ham (both on xG and in reality) in their previous Premier League match. These matches were intersected by a Champions League draw against Zenit – another game in which their defense let them down.

Indeed, Chelsea have conceded 3.78(xG) in their last two Premier League matches, which is more than they did in their previous six games combined (3.24).

Everton’s struggles were noted in last week’s column, but the bookies are giving them just a 6.3% chance of emerging victorious in this one. In our eyes, this represents tremendous value.

Best Available Everton Odds

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