Premier League Best Bets Utilizing Expected Goals (xG): Gameweek 6

Written By The xG Philosophy on September 22, 2021
premier league best bets

Using Expected Goals data each week can drive us towards the most valuable options among English Premier League xG bets.

Last weekend saw three of our four bets come in, as Brentford, Brighton and Arsenal obliged. This leaves us +7.24 units in profit after the first week of tipping.

For an explanation as to what xG data is and how it can be used to succeed in the betting markets, check out the xG data page, or pick up a copy of The Expected Goals Philosophy.

I have bet one unit on each of these matches, unless otherwise noted.

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Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur

Arsenal did the job for us last week, and I’ll be backing them again as they take on a struggling Tottenham team.

Spurs have an xG differential of -5.47(xG) so far this season, indicating that they’ve been largely on the receiving end of chances created.

They’ve looked particularly limp in attack, creating just 4.55(xG) over their five matches so far this season – only Norwich and Southampton have created less.

The bookmakers have made Arsenal marginal favorites for this North London derby, with a 41.0% chance of victory. The model suggests they should be priced closer to 50%, so I’ll be staking one unit on the Gunners.

Leeds United vs. West Ham

West Ham travel to a Leeds side who achieved their first xG ‘win’ of the season last week against Newcastle on Friday night.

Bielsa’s side haven’t looked quite the side they were last campaign and there are fears they might succumb to ‘second season syndrome’.

West Ham, on the other hand, have started the season as impressively as they finished the last. They have accumulated 9.45(xG) so far this term, a total bettered only by Liverpool and Man City.

The model suggests that West Ham have a 54.6% chance of winning this match, comfortably greater than the bookies’ 39.1% estimations. As such, I’ll be staking two units on the Hammers.

Leicester City vs. Burnley

Last week I noted Leicester’s poor start to the season in terms of xG. The Foxes once again lost the xG battle to Brighton last weekend, albeit slightly unfortunate to see a couple of VAR calls go against them.

Four of Burnley’s five matches this campaign have been incredibly tight. The only game that had more than 0.20(xG) separating the two sides was against Liverpool. As such, I’d expect them to give Leicester a decent run for their money.

Although I expect the Foxes to win this match, there is certainly value to be found in backing Burnley at odds of 14.3%. As such, I’m staking two units on a Clarets victory.

Manchester United vs Aston Villa

Our longest shot among my Premier League best bets this week will be backing Aston Villa at odds of 12.5% against Man Utd. The Villans are fresh off a 3-0 thumping of Everton and have only ‘lost’ one match on xG this season.

Man Utd have looked far from convincing at times this campaign. Their performances against Wolves and Young Boys were worrying, accumulating far less xG than their opponents in both those games. Last weekend they relied on a last minute penalty save from David de Gea to overcome West Ham.

Although I expect Man Utd to win this match, I think there’s value in backing Aston Villa at such long odds and will be staking one unit on the visitors.

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