US Senate Race Prediction Markets: Key States, Favorites

The Senate race is hotting up on the prediction markets with just months to go before the midterms. According to the latest Kalshi board, a Democrats sweep for Congress Balance of Power is up, to 59%.

However, there are also millions of dollars in trading volume on individual Senate races. And once again, some of the trending prediction markets in states like Texas favor a Democratic sweep.

Senate Race Prediction Market: Frontrunners

The prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket let you trade on positions for who will take the Senate in the upcoming midterms. You can buy and sell shares on the overall Congress, just the Senate, or the House of Representatives.

It’s also possible to buy and sell event contracts on who will win individual state Senate races.

We’ve picked out a few of the trending events on Kalshi to see where the savvy trades are moving.

Texas Senate Winner: James Talarico ‘Yes’ @ $0.57

A Democrat clean sweep is favored in the prediction markets. However, it’s worth checking some of the individual states to find value.

Localized prediction markets like South Carolina or Texas, for example, are full of traders with some expert knowledge. They might be residents with more of a handle on the local developments than a trader from Connecticut.

In Texas, Democratic candidate James Talarico is neck-and-neck with the Republican Attorney General, Ken Paxton. The most recent poll surprised Democrats, but there’s more than meets the eye here.

Ken Paxton has faced multiple charges since he was elected, plus he’s seen in some quarters as just a Donald Trump loyalist with few policies. Could this be the time for a Democrat to take Texas?

The market on Kalshi has attracted $13 million in trading volume as of today. Do traders smell something in the water?

Our pick: Play the coinflip on Talarico, Kalshi, $0.57

Michigan Senate Winner: Abdul El-Sayed ‘Yes’ @ $0.65

Normally in Senate races, TV debates are held between two candidates. In Michigan this week, Republican Mike Rogers refused to take part versus Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.

El-Sayed spoke on an empty rostrum during the “debate” after Rogers had complained the debate would be like a “town hall”. He also accused FOX 2’s moderator Roop Raj of not being impartial, using the Detroit Free Press to back up his concerns.

No-shows may be temporary (the pair are due to debate next month) but Kalshi traders have heard enough. El-Sayed’s price on the Kalshi board has risen $0.10 since last week. With 46 days until the vote, Michigan is still anybody’s.

Our pick: Make a show for El-Sayed, Kalshi, $0.65

Maine Senate Winner: Troy Jackson ‘Yes’ @ $0.68

Maine’s Senate contender for the Democrats was supposed to be Graham Platner. However, following Platner’s departure after sexual assault allegations, Troy Jackson stepped in. His taking of the Democratic nomination was a virtual coronation as all other candidates stepped aside.

The progressive is now primed to take on Republican, Susan Collins, and is increasing his lead on the Kalshi board daily.

Maine is a key state for the Democrats, not least because Republican incumbent has been in the position for so long. The veteran has survived five terms in office, and the Democrats will be doing everything to get their man over the line.

Maine will be a close, messy affair. It’s also one of the biggest Senate markets on Kalshi right now, with over $8 million in trades.

Our pick: Odds-on for Jackson, Kalshi, $0.68 

As the Senate race prediction markets hot up, we’ll have more tips. Check back tomorrow for more trending picks on the markets.