Trump UN Prediction Markets: What Will the President Say?

Donald Trump addresses the UN General Assembly this week, with the organization in crisis.

For now, prediction market traders are concerned about just one thing: what will Donald Trump say during his address tomorrow?

Mention markets are highly volatile, not to say very controversial. However, by reviewing previous speeches and gauging the political winds, you can make informed predictions and buy the right event contracts.

Trump UN Speech Prediction Market: Frontrunners to be Mentioned

Payout criteria on Trump UN speech prediction markets are clear: POTUS must use the exact word or phrase, or the plural/possessive form of the word.

Various world events and Donald Trump bugbears could dominate his UN speech this week. Does he focus on Iran (a 97% favorite), oil (94%), or tackle the other big headline grabbers like ‘AI’?

Whichever words or phrases you predict Trump will say, you can trade at Kalshi now.

‘Iran’: ‘Yes’ @ $0.98

It’s worth looking back to Trump’s 2025 UN speech where he mentioned, among other things, immigration, climate change (“a con job”), and Russia (“not a real military power”).

Since then, the Iran War has raged on, and it could dominate Trump’s UN speech tomorrow.

Therefore, “Iran” or “Iranian” is the big favorite on the online prediction markets to be mentioned.

Trump has backed himself into a corner by launching attacks on Iranian soil. Iran has retaliated and dug in, disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in a way that has stumped Trump. It’s odds-on that POTUS uses the platform to sound off.

Our pick: 'Iran' in Trump’s crosshairs – Kalshi, $0.98

‘Oil’: ‘Yes’ @ $0.95

As an aside to the Iranian stalemate is the effect on the oil industry. Trump will surely use his speech at the UN to talk about how he has done wonders for oil prices.

This event contract also prices in “gas” and “gasoline”, so you have three ways to settle those trades here.

Oil prices slid to an 11-day low today as hopes of good US-Iran talks grew. Trump may use that as a reason to say his plans are working.

Our pick: Slick on 'oil' – Kalshi, $0.95

‘Board of Peace’: ‘Yes’ @ $0.66

The UN is weak right now. It’s in the midst of a financial crisis and is due to vote for a new Secretary-General. No strong candidate stands out, and even the UK is voicing concerns over the prime candidates.

Trump, of course, has hit out at the UN multiple times over the years. He’s even set up his own ‘Board of Peace’ as a counterweight to the UN. He spots weakness and a UN in decline.

POTUS may use his UN speech to take a few potshots at the body and promote his own version. 

Our pick: ‘Board of Peace’ to appear - Kalshi, $0.66

Prediction market exchanges like Kalshi also offer dozens of political markets on everything from the Senate race to the next president. Check back tomorrow for more top picks.