Trump Impeachment Prediction Markets: ‘Yes’ Chance up to 66%

The probability of Donald Trump being impeached has risen to 66% on the Kalshi prediction market.

The POTUS is being challenged on all sides, with an ongoing conflict in Iran and rising national debt dogging his second term.

However, should the Democrats have a good midterms, the chances of a third impeachment could increase. In fact, Kalshi traders price a Trump impeachment before his term ends at 66%. That means you can buy shares in ‘Yes’ on prediction markets at $0.66 and earn $0.34 per share should he be hauled before Congress.

Impeaching Trump: A Brief Timeline

2019: Donald Trump is impeached for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. The first charge refers to a formal inquiry that Trump had solicited help from Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden. The POTUS is acquitted.

2021: Trump is impeached for a second time on incitement of insurrection with regards to the January 2021 storming of the Capitol Building. Trump is found not guilty of the charges.

2025–2026: House Democrats bring three impeachment resolutions. The charges range from “abuse of presidential power” (relating to calling for members of Congress to be executed) to “militarization of domestic law enforcement” and “unconstitutional deportations”.

Will Trump be Impeached? Prediction Market Picks

The prediction markets have spoken, and you can trade shares on whether Donald Trump will be impeached during his term. There has been over $520,000 traded so far on the Kalshi prediction market for a Trump impeachment.

With poor midterms looming, could this spur the Democrats on to launch a third unprecedented impeachment of the president? Or, as some commentators are suggesting, will Trump come out fighting?

‘Yes’ @ $0.67

The odds of a Trump impeachment have increased by almost 20 percentage points from a year ago.

Kalshi traders predict that the Democrats will come out swinging before Trump heads off into the sunset.

However, an increasingly erratic and under-fire president may also increase the chances of an impeachment. And it’s not all about the US-Iran conflict, either.

The aggressive immigration policies from the White House have seen ICE agents on the streets. The death of U.S. citizens has led some, like Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) to last week introduce articles of impeachment on the POTUS.

“President Trump has used ICE [U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement] and CBP [Customs and Border Protection] to suppress the First Amendment rights to free speech and a free press,” the resolution read.

It went on to say how Trump “violated the Fourth Amendment right to privacy and protections against unlawful searches and excessive force; and defy the Fifth and Fourteenth Amendment guarantees of due process and equal protection by allowing and encouraging racially targeted 7 arrests, unjustified detentions, and unjustified killings.”

Our pick: A strong midterms could give the Democrats confidence. ‘Yes’ at Kalshi, $0.67

‘No’ @ $0.33

Let’s step back a little and look at what another impeachment would solve for the Democrats.

Unless he somehow changes the U.S. Constitution, Trump will go within three years. He may well pardon himself in any case should he lose an impeachment case.

Plus, as Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) said on NBC, the Democrats have wider domestic concerns to address should they take the House in the midterms.

The Democrats’ first order of business should be making education, housing and healthcare affordable. “Impeaching the president will not do that,” he added.

Our pick: ‘No’ is the value play if the Democrats save their fight for later: Kalshi, $0.33 

The chances of a record third impeachment for Donald Trump fluctuate with every Truth Social post and every new controversy. However, traders are factoring in the Trump outrage fatigue that seems to dominate his second term.

Want more trending prediction market picks? Check back tomorrow for more top selections.