Trump Impeachment Odds Grow Amidst Midterms Prediction Markets Fallout

The chances of a Donald Trump impeachment – his third – have increased after the Democrats completed their midterms clean sweep of the House and Senate.

Though some votes are yet to come in, it was a great night for the Democratic Party. They won the Senate with seats to spare, as well as the House.

That gives the Democrats control of Congress and the ability to take Trump and his inner circle to task.

First, there’s the matter of emergency action on the midterms. Trump threatened it, but will he use it?

Post-Midterms Trump Prediction Markets: Frontrunners

Donald Trump was reportedly “fuming” in the White House as it became apparent that the Republicans would lose both the House and Senate. While a “threat to democracy” was one of the reasons for voters turning on the Republicans, it essentially came down to the economy, stupid.

The ongoing Iran War was all Trump, and Americans have paid with higher gas bills as a result. The Republicans have paid with lost seats in both chambers.

So, what does Trump do now? He’s officially a lame duck president for sure. However, it also gives the Democrats fuel to start impeachment proceedings.

The knock-on effect of the midterms has sent prediction markets crazy. Will Trump be impeached? Are the Dems going after Pete Hegseth? Will POTUS hold another press conference about the White House’s reflecting pool?

Will Donald Trump be Impeached? ‘Yes’ Before July 1, 2027 @ $0.65

Democrats disagree on a lot of things and impeaching Donald Trump for a third time is among them.

However, with a spring in their step following historic midterms wins, event contracts on a ‘Yes’ impeachment have leapt.

The price of a ‘Yes’ trade on Before July 1 next year was $0.45 before midterms voting started. It’s now $0.65, an overnight increase of $0.20.

Democrats may feel there are other fish to fry (see Pete Hegseth) rather than a lame duck president.

Our pick: Trump to be impeached – Kalshi, $0.65

Trump Emergency Action: ‘No’ @ $0.88

Betting on anything Donald Trump says or does has been a fool’s errand in recent years. He is – has always been – fickle and changes his mind regularly.

Before the midterms, POTUS openly talked about invoking a national emergency measure should the votes go against his party.

Well, the midterms did go badly for the Republicans – really badly.

Trump was in a surprisingly conciliatory mood the morning after the results. He said the Democrats did “a good job” and slammed Republicans for losing their seats.

Trump also reiterated on his Truth Social platform that the Republicans would have won if he’d been on the ballot, perhaps ignoring how the House and Senate are voted on.

The president can flip wildly on anything from Iran to the economy to tariffs. However, after telling the New York Times he was “absolutely willing to accept” the defeat, Kalshi’s price on a ‘No’ leapt.

Our pick: Trump cools on emergency action – Kalshi, $0.88

Will Pete Hegseth be Impeached? ‘Yes’ Before Apr. 1, 2027@ $0.60

Calls for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to quit, be fired, or be impeached are growing.

Rep. Adam Smith of Washington told TIME this week is endorsing a move against Hegseth rather than the president himself.

Hegseth is seen as a more viable target than a lame-duck president who would likely beat another impeachment. Plus, the Republicans may come on board if it was Hegseth, not Trump, being chased.

The defense secretary’s handling of the US-Iran conflict and his firing of senior military figures have made him deeply unpopular.

There’s value play on Kalshi in Trump firing Hegseth ($0.78 before Feb. 1, 2027). However, a straight impeachment is priced at $0.60 as traders wait to see what the Democrats do next.

Our pick: Hegseth impeachment calls are growing – Kalshi, $0.60

As the final midterms results trickle in, we’ll be back this week with updates on where our key battleground tips landed.