TIME Person of the Year Prediction Market: Trump Slump Bites After Interview

The TIME Person of the Year is one of the most prestigious – and controversial – highlights of the news publishing world. World leaders, actors and activists have adorned the front cover – even despots.

The TIME Person of the Year prediction market is still attracting trade volume, with New York mayor Zohran Mamdani leading the way ahead of Mark Carney.

However, it’s Donald Trump who has slumped in the market after being one of the frontrunners just a month or two ago. He’s now just a 7% chance to make it to the TIME Magazine front cover once again.

TIME Person of the Year for 2026 Prediction Market: Trump Slumps

Donald Trump was interviewed in TIME Magazine last week and POTUS used it to highlight some of his “achievements”, namely the building work surrounding the controversial White House ballroom.

The interview showed Trump’s hand, namely his expectation that “they” (Democrats) will “go after me” should they win control of Congress in the midterms. He also suggested (though didn’t confirm) that he’d demolish the Kennedy Center without a congressional green light.

The prediction markets have seen enough, dropping Trump’s chances of securing another TIME Magazine Person of the Year cover from 14% last month to 7% now.

But who else could adorn the cover and what are the prediction markets saying with months until the announcement? Let’s examine some of the current value plays.

Donald Trump: ‘Yes’ @ $0.07

The TIME Person of the Year is chosen by an internal group of senior editors at the magazine. However, TIME journalists can make suggestions to the shortlist before a debate.

The key thing to note is that choosing the TIME Person of the Year isn’t an endorsement, rather a recognition of someone who has influenced the world that year.

Certainly, for better or worse, Trump has influenced the world in 2026. Stalin appeared on the cover twice, and Adolf Hitler featured in 1938.

The war in Iran, the cost-of-living crisis, and midterms: all could ruin Trump in the years ahead. Should he decide to ramp up the attacks on Iran, Trump could satisfy the sufficient “influence” quota to appear on the TIME cover.

Our pick: Trump could be the surprise value play – Kalshi, $0.07

AI: ‘Yes’ @ $0.08

The ‘Architects of AI’ were named TIME Magazine ‘Person of the Year’ in 2025. It was a collective award including names such as OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Elon Musk.

However, AI itself hasn’t won the coveted TIME cover award. Yet.

The rapid advance of AI has grabbed headlines across the world this year. Even Trump has been in thrall to the new technology, backing new data centers and declaring, “Let Data Reign”.

“It’s [AI] the internet, but much bigger,” he added. He’s even tried to shape the future of AI by “rebranding” AI as “SI” (Super Intelligence).

It could be a long shot to have AI featuring on TIME Magazine two years in a row. With the state of the world right now, don’t rule it out.   

Our pick: AI to make it two years in two – Kalshi, $0.08

Mark Carney: ‘No’ @ $0.83

Canadian PM Mark Carney was leading this market for a while following a successful World Cup and pushback against Donald Trump.

In reaction to aggressive U.S. tariffs (again), Carney reached out to the European Union, who have proposed making Canada an “associate member”.

Naturally, that infuriated Trump, but it’s put the former Bank of England head on the world map.

Influential in 2026 – certainly. Influential enough to be on the cover of TIME Magazine? The ‘No’ at $0.83 might be the play here.

Our pick: Back against Carney’s credentials – Kalshi, $0.83 

Check back this week for more trending prediction market tips.