TIME Person of the Year Prediction Market: Mamdani Dominates

Zohran Mamdani is the clear leader this month in the TIME Person of the Year 2026 prediction market. Pope Leo XIV and Donald Trump inevitably lead the chasing pack for traders. Is there some value in backing these lower-priced options on Kalshi?

The TIME Person of the Year is decided annually, with the market closing on December 31. U.S. presidents, despots, and sportsmen have all won the accolade, but whose name will be on the cover of TIME Magazine come January 1?

We have checked the Kalshi markets to see who the big runners are. We also look for strange surges in ‘Yes’ trades, fueled by Reddit threads, positive media (or otherwise), or impacts from world events.

TIME Person of the Year 2026 Prediction Market: Frontrunners

The prediction markets have spoken and opened the trades to see who will be crowned TIME Person of the Year for 2026.

TIME’s Person of the Year needn’t be someone popular. Just look at some of the great and (not so) good who’ve received the gong in years gone by:

• Awarded since: 1927
• Number of U.S. presidents won: 14
• Number of popes won: 3
• Notable winners: Adolf Hitler (1938), Joseph Stalin (1939, 1942), Winston Churchill (1940), Vladimir Putin (2007), Volodymyr Zelensky (2022), Bill Gates (2005), Architects of AI (2025)

Zohran Mamdani: ‘Yes’ @ $0.36

The progressive mayor of New York was elected in November and is having a good time in power. He’s a proven winner and has even inspired admiration from Donald Trump.

Additionally, Mamdani-backed candidates are crushing the New York primaries right now. Better-known Democratic candidates were beaten in the early summer primary votes by left-wing alternatives, all supported by Mamdani.

Now, eyes turn to November’s midterms. If the hard-left win more Democratic primaries and win, Zamdani’s star will rise further. That means that $0.36 share price right now will look very low indeed.

Our pick: Back the Mamdani buzz at Kalshi, $0.36

Pope Leo XIV: ‘Yes’ @ $0.18

The Pope hasn’t been named TIME Person of the Year since Pope Francis in 2013.

Pope Francis won for changing the perception of the Catholic Church.

Pope Leo has picked war (and the world has had plenty of those since he assumed the papacy) as one of his big topics. He has spoken against the Israel-Gaza war and incurred the wrath of Donald Trump over the U.S.–Iran conflict. To illustrate that tension, Trump said the Pope was “WEAK on crime and terrible on foreign policy”.

Ruffling White House feathers may be enough to make that $0.18 contract price seem a bargain.

Our pick: Pope Leo is available to trade at Kalshi, $0.18

Donald Trump: ‘Yes’ @ $0.14

Speaking of Donald Trump, could the POTUS win for the first time since 2024?

Last time out, the president won for his political resurrection after a painful loss to Joe Biden in 2020.

This year, Trump has dominated headlines over…well, take your pick: the U.S.–Iran War, the White House ballroom, countless executive orders, interfering in the 2026 World Cup, and trying to put his face and name on everything.

Whatever your opinion of Trump, TIME doesn’t discriminate against political leanings. Stalin and Hitler won the award, after all…

Our pick: Can it be a third award? Back Trump at Kalshi, $0.14

Who will win the TIME Person of the Year prediction market? There’s still time to trade in and out of the market before it resolves on December 31. Don’t forget to check our pages tomorrow for more prediction tips.