Prediction Markets News Today 7/7: McConnell, Debt, World Cup

We're back and looking at the best prediction markets today on Kalshi! In this series, we won't necessarily stick to just sports — we'll look at all the markets trending for trades on Kalshi and put a little context behind each one. We're starting with some political talk today. Let's take a look at Tuesday's trending markets.

Prediction Markets News Today: Mitch McConnell Hospitalized

One of the hottest trending markets right now asks whether Mitch McConnell will resign his office before the midterms. This one is trending almost entirely because of his health. As of Monday night, the New York Times and other outlets have reported that the 84-year-old has been hospitalized since mid-June. He was found unconscious at his D.C. residence and remains hospitalized more than two weeks later.

McConnell is Kentucky's senior U.S. senator, a Republican who has held the seat since 1985. It's worth noting he already announced he won't seek re-election and is set to leave the Senate in January 2027. This market is really about whether he exits early rather than finishing his term.

Things have been pretty hush-hush around his current health status. The Independent reported that his daughter deleted her X account as speculation and rumors continue to build. Kalshi posted a straightforward disclaimer regarding this market's scenarios so traders are fully aware of the stipulations.

"In the event of death, the market will resolve to the last traded price prior to death, unless such a price is not available, not logically consistent, or not representative of a fair settlement value, in which case the Exchange may determine a fair value in its sole discretion," Kalshi notes.

Kalshi Economics: Peak U.S. National Debt Under Trump

Another trending market asks where peak U.S. national debt will land under the Trump administration. Here's how the tiers are trading:

• $40 trillion — Yes 98 cents, No 2.7 cents
• $45 trillion — Yes 81 cents, No 23 cents
• $50 trillion — Yes 36 cents, No 71 cents

For context, the live U.S. national debt is already hovering around $39 trillion, so the $40 trillion tier being priced as a near-lock at 98 cents makes sense. Newsweek wrote about the trajectory earlier this week, noting that the history of U.S. debt "displays a familiar pattern: spending in times of need and expansion, enabled by the country's economic strength and its increasingly central position in the global financial system." As more of the federal budget goes toward interest payments, questions are mounting over how long that economic strength can postpone a crisis.

Kalshi World Cup: Who Wins the 2026 World Cup?

The FIFA World Cup winner market continues to do incredible volume as the tournament rolls on toward its final eight countries. The United States got bounced on Monday night in a 4-1 loss to Belgium. However, Belgium lives on as one of the biggest underdogs still standing, trading at just 2.7 cents on "Yes" to win it all.

France, meanwhile, is the overwhelming favorite at 34.5 cents, which is nearly double the chance Kalshi gives second-favorite Spain. Plenty of value for the underdog hunters here, and this market should keep churning heavy volume through the quarterfinals.

That's a wrap on today's top prediction markets. Happy trading!