Prediction Markets News Today 7/3: Justice Alito, Strait of Hormuz

Happy Friday! We're back and looking at the best prediction markets news today on Kalshi! In this series, we won't necessarily stick to just sports — we'll look at all the markets trending for trades on Kalshi and put a little context behind each one. Let's dive in.

Prediction Markets News Today for July 3

One of the hottest trending markets right now is "When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?" This one caught fire after NPR published — and then quickly retracted — a report claiming Justice Samuel Alito would retire. Alito was nominated to the court in 2005 by President George W. Bush and has been part of its conservative bloc since 2006.

The most popular dates in this market:

• Before September 1, 2026 — Yes 24 cents, No 77 cents
• Before January 1, 2027 — Yes 34 cents, No 67 cents
• Before July 1, 2027 — Yes 53 cents, No 48 cents

As you can see, the most popular trade right now is "Before July 1, 2027." Alito is 76 years old, a Trenton, New Jersey native with a Yale Law School degree. The Washington Post also confirmed earlier this week that NPR retracted the story that Alito was retiring. We'll see what happens as time goes on.

Kalshi Markets: When Will the Strait of Hormuz Return to Normal?

Another big trending market asks when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal. "Before November 1, 2026" is trading at Yes 61 cents, but if you want to play some chalk, "Before July 1, 2027" is trading all the way up at Yes 83 cents. So the reasonable expectation baked into the market is that it happens sometime between this November and next July.

According to NBC News, Iran and Oman proposed a fee plan for the Strait of Hormuz, reported on Thursday. A source told NBC, "The American team values its partnership with Oman and is confident that it can resolve differences at the technical level." This market has a ton of volume, with plenty of dates to choose from depending on your read.

Sports Prediction Markets Today: Who Wins the 2026 World Cup?

And now that we're getting further through the knockout stage, let's take a look at the World Cup winner market. France is the overwhelming favorite as the most expensive "Yes" to win it all at just a tick over 34 cents, while Argentina has the second-highest price at 18.7 cents. The United States still has a fantastic price at nearly 4 cents.

The Americans will have their work cut out for them, though — striker Folarin Balogun will miss the Round of 16 game against Belgium after the red card he picked up in the Round of 32 win over Bosnia. Balogun scored the opener before being sent off in the 64th minute, and U.S. Soccer confirmed there's no mechanism to appeal, so he's out for Monday's clash in Seattle.

The United States will square off with Belgium on Monday night at 8 p.m. ET at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington.

That's a wrap on the top prediction markets news today! Good luck trading event contracts on Kalshi!