Prediction Markets News Today 8/8: Hunter Biden, Aliens

We're back and looking at the best prediction markets news today on Kalshi! In this series, we won't necessarily stick to just sports. We'll look at the markets trending for trades and put a little context behind each one. Let's dive into the action for August 8.

Prediction Markets New Today for August 8

Hunter Biden is back in the news after sitting down with the BBC to talk about the pardon his father handed him, and prediction market traders are paying attention.

Biden didn't sugarcoat it. He called himself "the most privileged person there could possibly be as it relates to that" and "one of one," saying he's eternally grateful — in part because he believes Donald Trump has turned out to be exactly the retribution-seeker his father warned about.

However, he flipped the script on himself. Asked whether the pardon was good for the Constitution, the American people, or his dad's legacy, his answer was blunt: "No, on all counts."

Traders are seeking Kalshi's market on "Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?" — which has already moved more than $1.29 million in volume.

Biden sits near the bottom of the board. You can grab Yes on him for just 6¢, which tells you traders think the pardon effectively took him off the table this year.

Here's the top of the market right now:

• John Brennan: 36% chance, Yes 37¢ / No 64¢
• Anthony Fauci: 30% chance, Yes 30¢ / No 71¢
• Letitia James: 27% chance, Yes 30¢ / No 71¢
• Jack Smith: 26% chance, Yes 28¢ / No 73¢

The movement tells its own story. Fauci jumped 14 points as of Friday night, while Brennan dropped nine, James slipped five, and Smith fell three.

Kalshi Space: Will the U.S. Confirm Aliens Exist?

Pentagon UFO videos are trending again, and Kalshi has a market sitting right on top of the story.

CBS reported Friday that the fifth installment of the government's declassified UAP dump, announced by chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell under a program with the almost-too-perfect acronym PURSUE — the Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters. CBS News counted 41 documents, images and videos in the batch, including 16 videos, landing about a month after the fourth release.

The headliner is a Central Command submission: 1 minute and 39 seconds of electro-optical and infrared sensor footage captured from a military platform over the Middle East last year. If you've watched any of these before, you know the genre — a sensor panning across a smudge of contrast, changing magnification, never getting an answer.

And that's the whole point. The government's own archive describes what it's publishing as unresolved cases, meaning nobody there can say definitively what these things are.

That brings us to Kalshi's space category and the market "Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?" — a monster that's moved north of $34.7 million in volume.

Despite the disclosure drumbeat, traders aren't buying an imminent announcement:

• Before September: under 1% chance, Yes 1¢
• Before October: 2% chance, Yes 3¢ / No 98¢
• Before November: 5% chance, Yes 6¢ / No 95¢
• Before December: 5% chance, Yes 6¢ / No 95¢
• Before 2027: 6.7% chance, Yes 6.9¢ / No 93.3¢
• Before 2028: 17% chance, Yes 17¢ / No 84¢
• Before Jan. 20, 2029: 22% chance, Yes 23¢ / No 78¢

Traders clearly believe more files are coming; they just don't think grainy gunship footage adds up to official confirmation anytime soon.

Good luck, and happy trading!