Prediction Markets News Today 8/13: Ballon d’Or, Scheffler, Democrats

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Written By Jon Young | Published at August 13, 2026
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Harry Kane Heroics and heartache: looking back at the World Cup - IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters

Our prediction markets news for 13 August throws up a few of the big moves on the Kalshi platform.

Harry Kane is now runaway favorite for soccer’s highest player accolade, the Ballon d’Or. Meanwhile, Scotty Scheffler is the sensible value pick to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

We round up the day’s trending sports prediction markets on Kalshi right now.

The prediction markets traders have had their say, with preseason heating up in multiple sports. But we turn our attention today to golf and one of soccer’s biggest individual prizes. Sign up to Kalshi today and find hundreds of trending markets.

Harry Kane 60% to Win Ballon d’Or

The Ballon d’Or is the highest honor for any soccer player. The award ceremony takes place October 26 in London.

And it could be Londoner, Harry Kane, who takes down the trophy following a stellar season.

Kane is a 60% shot at Kalshi, and for good reason: he scored 73 goals in all competitions for Bayern Munich last season. He then followed that up with another standout World Cup for England, netting six times as England finished the tournament third.

While Ballon d’Or winners traditionally have a Champions League or World Cup/Euros title earned, Kane’s stats could swing it among voters. Kane is our 62ȼ pick at Kalshi– snap it up.

Here’s how the 2026 Ballon d’Or market is shaping up at Kalshi:

Golf: Scheffler the Pick in the FedEx St. Jude

One of the hottest stops on the PGA Tour starts today – the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind.

The purse is $20 million, but double that has been traded at Kalshi on who will win.

Here’s how the market is teeing up at Kalshi:

Trending now is Scottie Scheffler, a 16% chance on Kalshi, way ahead of Rory McIlroy at 5.6%.

The 16ȼ event contract offers slightly better value than the online sportsbooks here. And the American is rightly tipped to win on one of golf’s trickiest courses.

Our prediction: Scottie Scheffler justifies the value play – 16ȼ at Kalshi.

Ocasio-Cortez Leads the Democratic Nominee Race

With the primaries and Trump’s Iran war dominating headlines, it’s easy to forget the prediction markets news on the presidential nominees for 2028.

The markets for both the Republicans and Democrats have been running for a while. And it’s the Democratic presidential nominee race where things are looking interesting.

The Kalshi market on this is nearing $180 million in trading volume – a staggering amount for a market that won’t resolve for another two years.

Here’s how the market is looking at Kalshi:

California governor, Gavin Newsom, was the runaway leader for much of this market. However, prices are converging a little as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortex regains lost ground.

In an ABC News interview, Ocasio-Cortez said she “hadn’t ruled out the possibility” of running for president. That was enough of a hint to send Kalshi traders running for their “buy” buttons.

Our tip: Buy Ocasio-Cortez @ 18ȼ at Kalshi. The price is likely to jump before the primaries.

We’ll be back tomorrow with more of the best prediction markets news on the trending sales.

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