Prediction Markets News Today 8/11: US-Iran Plays, Bezos Moves

Written By Jon Young | Published at August 11, 2026

Persian Gulf tanker 2026 — Iranian strikes on oil shipping - REUTERS

The seemingly endless US-Iran stalemate is still fascinating prediction market traders on Kalshi and Polymarket. The leading platforms have a range of trending markets that twist and turn with every Trump outburst or fractious ceasefire.

Meanwhile, Amazon head honcho, Jeff Bezos, is eyeing up a stake in English Premier League team, Liverpool. Polymarket’s Yes/No market on him taking up a slice is generating serious trade volume.

We take a look at the prediction markets to see which trades are attracting the buzz today.

Let’s take a deeper dive into some of the more interesting trending markets at Polymarket.

The US-Iran conflict has generated dozens of markets, many of which cover the fate of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the U.S. blockade market has attracted much of this week’s trading volume.

US Announces End of Iranian Blockade

Donald Trump announced last month that the U.S. was reinstating a naval blockade of Iran. The result was a direct target of Iranian ships trying to navigate the Strait of Hormuz.

The reaction was typical of Iran during this conflict: a shrug of the shoulders and a new deal with Oman to allow ships through new passages.

The Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS) doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz, but it does offer a temporary alternative for tankers. It also gives the Iranians more control over Gulf traffic.

The American blockade on Iran is designed to do one thing: hurt Iran economically. Trump has said the U.S. is “low keying it” – i.e. he’s scaling back the bombings which will hurt the world economy even more than blockades.

Polymarket traders are skeptical that the blockade will come to an end anytime soon. Here’s the market is playing out right now, with cautious end-of-year buys the smart play:

US announces end of Iranian blockade by:

‘August 11’: ‘Yes’ 0.7ȼ; ‘No’ 99.4ȼ
‘August 15’: ‘Yes’ 7ȼ; ‘No’ 94ȼ
‘August 22’: ‘Yes’ 19ȼ; ‘No’ 82ȼ
‘December 31’: ‘Yes’ 79ȼ; ‘No’ 21ȼ

Jeff Bezos Eyes Up a Liverpool Buy

Bezos made a fortune as head of Amazon and is now turning his attention to English soccer clubs. Liverpool Football Club is attracting his attention right now, with reports suggesting Bezos is leading a consortium to purchase a minority stake.

The group includes Bezos, as well as millionaire businessman, Amit Bhatia, and Eduardo Saverin, the Facebook co-founder.

The price of a ‘Yes’ buy on Bezos leapt to 77% this month. However, there’s a small caveat: Bezos has previously stepped away from similar investments.

He was once ready to purchase the Seattle Seahawks and Washington Commanders before walking away. Plus, the deal must go through before 31 December for Polymarket to resolve the market.

Here’s how the Jeff Bezos Liverpool market is shaping up at Polymarket:

Announced as Liverpool owner in 2026: ‘Yes’ 77ȼ (up from 12ȼ last month); ‘No’ 24ȼ

That’s the trending prediction markets news for today in another example of how the platforms offer such a spread of contracts. Check back tomorrow for more hot trends.