Prediction Markets News Today 7/31: Todd Blanche, Anthony Fauci

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Written By Justin Carlucci | Published at July 31, 2026
Anthony Fauci, former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, is sworn in before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on July 29, 2026, in Washington, DC.

We’re back and looking at the best prediction markets news today on Kalshi. In this series, we won’t necessarily stick to just sports. We’ll look at markets trending for trades on Kalshi and put a little context behind each one. Let’s dive into the action for July 31.

Prediction Markets News Today for July 31

Acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche is now at the center of a standoff between the White House and Senate Republicans, and prediction markets are reacting.

According to the Associated Press, “President Donald Trump said Thursday he may pull acting Attorney General Todd Blanche’s nomination for the full-time post to avoid conceding to Senate Republicans’ demands over a sweeping tax audit immunity deal benefiting the president and members of his family."

The AP noted, "After failed negotiations forced the delay of a committee vote to advance Blanche’s nomination, Trump suggested he was holding firm against pressure from Republican Sens. John Cornyn and Thom Tillis. They have expressed concerns about the controversial settlement of Trump’s lawsuit against the Internal Revenue Service, which a judge denounced as an exercise in self-dealing.”

The AP adds that Justice Department officials appeared willing to talk with senators, but the White House refused to budge. Rather than compromise, Trump posted that he might withdraw Blanche’s nomination and try again after Cornyn and Tillis leave office next year, leaving the AG post in limbo.

On Kalshi, the “When will Todd Blanche be confirmed?” market has repriced sharply:

Longer windows still show a majority belief Blanche eventually gets the job, but traders are now betting on a drawn‑out process and more turbulence before any confirmation vote.

Kalshi Politics: Fauci in “Who Will Be Arrested This Year?”

Anthony Fauci is back in the news, and prediction markets have taken notice.

Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier said he is opening an investigation into the former NIAID director after Fauci invoked his Fifth Amendment right and refused to answer questions during a congressional hearing this week.

According to Fox News, Uthmeier wrote on X, “Fauci’s lack of candor to Congress is unbelievable. My office is launching an investigation into Dr. Fauci. It’s past time we get the truth of what happened during COVID.”

Fox reports that Uthmeier is casting the probe as an effort to uncover how pandemic decisions were made and communicated. Fauci’s silence has become a flashpoint: supporters say he’s protecting himself from a politicized process; critics argue he owes Congress answers.

On Kalshi, that fight has spilled into one of the platform’s most attention‑grabbing markets: “Who will be arrested this year?” Traders can buy or sell contracts on whether specific high‑profile figures will be arrested before year‑end.

Current pricing has Fauci among the notable names:

Fauci’s chances have ticked up as talk of investigations grows louder, but markets still price an arrest as an underdog outcome. That gap between rhetorical heat and the higher bar for actual charges is exactly what prediction markets are trying to quantify.

If Uthmeier’s investigation broadens or other states follow Florida’s lead, Fauci’s price could climb. If the probe stalls or looks mostly symbolic, those 14‑cent Yes contracts may drift back down.

That’s a wrap on today’s top prediction markets. Good luck, and happy trading!

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