Prediction Markets News Today 7/29: Madison Beer, Spider-Man

We’re back and looking at the best prediction markets news today on Kalshi! In this series, we won’t necessarily stick to just sports. We’ll look at all the markets trending for trades on Kalshi and put a little context behind each one. Let’s dive into the action for July 29.

Prediction Markets News Today for July 29

Wedding bells are in the air, and football season is creeping up, which means Justin Herbert is about to be everywhere again. Training camps are opening, the Los Angeles Chargers are back in the news cycle, and Herbert’s fiancée, Madison Beer, is trending right alongside him.

Beer announced their engagement on Tuesday, and of course Kalshi wasted zero time turning the next big question into a market. On the “Where will Justin Herbert and Madison Beer’s wedding occur?” board, you can trade on which state or country will host the ceremony. There are plenty of popular destinations listed, each with its own price, and California is leading the way.

Here’s how the top options are trading right now:

• California: Yes 42 cents, No 59 cents
• Oregon: Yes 18 cents, No 85 cents
• New York: Yes 21 cents, No 81 cents
• Mexico: Yes 5 cents, No 97 cents
• Hawaii: Yes 5 cents, No 97 cents
• Italy: Yes 5 cents, No 97 cents

Kalshi notes that the contracts will resolve Yes if Justin Herbert and Madison Beer’s wedding takes place in the specified state or country before Jan. 1, 2028.

With California sitting as the clear leader and a handful of destination long shots on the board, the rumor mill will be humming. Anyone with even a hint of what Herbert and Beer prefer for a venue might be tempted to take a stand in this market.

Kalshi Entertainment: Spider-Man’s Rotten Tomatoes Score

Now, for some film talk. Spider-Man is also trending thanks to the upcoming release of Spider-Man: Brand New Day, which is set to hit U.S. theaters at the end of the month after a red‑carpet premiere in Los Angeles on Monday.

Tom Holland and Sadie Sink star in the movie, marking the fourth Spider‑Man film with Holland in the lead role. The film, directed by Destin Daniel Cretton, runs 2 hours and 25 minutes.

IMDb briefly describes the plot this way: “A forgotten Peter Parker lives alone as a full-time Spider-Man until mounting pressure triggers a dangerous change and a powerful new enemy emerges.”

Kalshi has built a market around how critics will receive the film, tying contracts to its Rotten Tomatoes score. Traders are currently pricing in an excellent reception, with high‑score tiers drawing aggressive buying:

• Above 83: 98% chance, Yes 99 cents / No 2 cents
• Above 85: 96% chance, Yes 97 cents / No 4 cents
• Above 87: 87% chance, Yes 87 cents / No 15 cents
• Above 88: 79% chance, Yes 78 cents / No 23 cents
• Above 89: 60% chance, Yes 60 cents / No 41 cents
• Above 90: 48% chance, Yes 51 cents / No 53 cents
• Above 91: 22% chance, Yes 21 cents / No 81 cents

The market is scheduled to resolve on Aug. 3 at 10 a.m. ET, once the official Rotten Tomatoes score settles. If you believe Brand New Day will land closer to Holland’s best‑reviewed outings, or think the early hype is too rich and critics will come in lower, there’s still time to stake out a position before scores finalize.

That’s a wrap on today’s top prediction markets. Good luck, and happy trading!