Prediction Markets News Today 7/27: Gas Prices, SC Senate Race

We’re back and looking at the best prediction markets news today on Kalshi! In this series, we won’t necessarily stick to just sports. We’ll look at all the markets trending for trades on Kalshi and put a little context behind each one. Let’s dive into the action for Monday, July 27.

Prediction Markets News Today for July 27

If you drive anywhere in the U.S., you don’t need a chart to tell you gas prices aren’t what they used to be. Filling up feels a lot more like an “investment” these days, and Kalshi has turned that pain at the pump into a tradable event.

The “Gas prices in the US this month?” market on Kalshi is inching toward the finish line. This one closes on July 31, and it resolves based on the average price according to AAA.

Back on July 5, the national average for regular gas was sitting around $3.70. By July 26, that number had already climbed to roughly $4.10, putting the market right on the edge of the key thresholds traders are watching.

Here’s how some of the main tiers are trading on Kalshi right now:

• Above $4.06: Yes 96 cents, No 6 cents
• Above $4.08: Yes 86 cents, No 15 cents
• Above $4.10: Yes 73 cents, No 38 cents
• Above $4.12: Yes 57 cents, No 57 cents
• Above $4.14: Yes 38 cents, No 63 cents
• Above $4.16: Yes 12 cents, No 93 cents
• Above $4.18: Yes 3 cents, No 98 cents
• Above $4.20: Yes 2 cents, No 99 cents

Anything that nudges the AAA average a few cents either way over the next few days — refinery issues, hurricane chatter, or a sudden demand drop — will have a real impact on these prices. For traders, it’s a classic late-month squeeze where pennies at the pump can swing this market in a big way.

Kalshi Politics: South Carolina GOP Senate Special Primary

Now, for some politics. Things are getting interesting in South Carolina, where Kalshi is running a “South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?” market.

Kalshi explains it like this: South Carolina is holding a Republican Senate special primary to fill the seat left vacant by the death of Lindsey Graham. The field includes Darline Graham Nordone, Russell Fry, and Ralph Norman, among others, and the winner will move on to the November 3 general election ballot.

Here’s how the top of the board looks:

• Darline Graham: Yes 73 cents, No 28 cents
• Ralph Norman: Yes 19 cents, No 82 cents
• Russell Fry: Yes 8 cents, No 93 cents

That’s a commanding lead for Graham, but the campaign hasn’t been quiet. According to Fox News, Rep. Nancy Mace, R‑S.C., has raised doubts about whether President Donald Trump’s preferred pick — his sister, Darline Graham — should even be on the primary ballot. In an interview with Fox News Digital, Mace said Graham has no public record to run on and questioned whether she meets the requirements to appear on the ballot at all.

It’s rare to see that kind of intra‑party tension spill out so publicly, especially when it involves a Trump‑backed candidate in a deep‑red state. For traders, the question is whether these eligibility concerns are just noise or a real threat to Graham’s front‑runner status. If any formal challenge gains traction, those 70‑plus‑cent Yes contracts could suddenly look a lot less safe.

For now, though, the market still shows Graham well ahead, with Norman and Fry trading as the main long shots. As legal questions, endorsements, and fundraising numbers trickle in, expect this board to stay volatile right up until primary day.

That’s a wrap on today’s top prediction markets. Good luck, and happy trading!