Prediction Markets News Today: Hall of Fame Game and NFL MVP Race Take Center Stage

Written By Nick Crain | Published at August 4, 2026
Jul 31, 2026; El Segundo, CA, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) holds a KHAOS Water Ball during training camp at The Bolt. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

As August officially gets underway, football is finally on the horizon. While the NFL regular season is still several weeks away, the Hall of Fame Game marks the league's first on-field action of the year. That alone makes it one of the busiest weeks in prediction markets, and when combined with MVP speculation beginning to ramp up, anticipation for the NFL season is officially here. With that in mind, here are two of the biggest stories in prediction markets news today.

Hall of Fame Game Brings Football Back

The NFL preseason officially kicks off Thursday night, and with just over 48 hours until kickoff, anticipation continues to build. This year's Hall of Fame Game, played in Canton, Ohio, features the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals in the league's first game since the Super Bowl.

While it's only a preseason contest, it serves as the unofficial start of football season. It's the lone NFL game of the week before the rest of the preseason schedule begins next Thursday, making it a standalone event that fans have been waiting months to see.

Polymarket currently gives the Panthers a slight edge with a 53% probability compared to Arizona's 48%, illustrating just how evenly matched the market views the game.

Of course, preseason football is notoriously difficult to project. Coaches often prioritize evaluating rookies, backups and players competing for roster spots rather than winning the game, creating far more uncertainty than a regular-season matchup. Still, that unpredictability is part of what makes the Hall of Fame Game one of the biggest sporting events of the week and one of the most active markets in football.

For those following prediction markets news, this matchup is less about the final result and more about football finally returning after months of waiting. Football fans get their first taste of on-field action on Thursday night.

Justin Herbert May Offer the Best Value in the MVP Race

The NFL MVP market is once again loaded with quarterbacks.

Josh Allen, a former MVP winner, leads Polymarket with a 13% probability, followed by Lamar Jackson at 11%. Caleb Williams, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert all sit at 10%, making this one of the tightest MVP races entering a season in recent memory.

There simply isn't a clear favorite. And that means value in prediction markets, because every top candidate has tremendous upside.

Ultimately, the award will be determined by individual production, team success and the narrative that develops throughout the season. That's where Herbert presents an intriguing case.

The Chargers are expected to be one of the AFC's strongest teams after making several key offseason additions and returning a healthy offensive line in front of one of the league's most talented quarterbacks. Herbert has already shown he possesses MVP-caliber ability, and if Los Angeles finishes near the top of the conference standings, he'll almost certainly be in the conversation.

At 10%, Herbert offers a compelling combination of upside and value. The market is likely to shift dramatically throughout the season, and he'll need to stay healthy while the Chargers continue winning, but he's one of the more intriguing early candidates to watch. Especially if Los Angeles wins their division, which is a tough one, he will have a strong case.

Football is officially back, and these markets will only become more active as preseason games begin and regular-season storylines take shape. For anyone following prediction markets news, the Hall of Fame Game and the NFL MVP race are two of the biggest markets to watch as the countdown to Week 1 continues.