Pete Hegseth Prediction Markets: Impeachment Chance Grows, Trump Defends

It’s Day 7 in the Pete Hegseth House and his chances of eviction are growing by the day. Prediction markets now price an early exit for the Defense Secretary at $0.64. His chances of impeachment have soared to 87% before April 1, 2027.

The Defense Secretary/Secretary for War is paying the price for the Republicans’ disastrous showing in last week’s midterms. Voters blame the war in Iran for high fuel prices which are causing havoc with ordinary Americans’ bills.

Could Pete Hegseth pay the ultimate price, despite comments in his defence from Donald Trump himself this week?

Pete Hegseth Prediction Markets: Top Movers Nov. 10

The prediction markets have been highly active since last week’s bruising midterms for the Republicans.

The GOP lost both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The Republicans still retain control until January, after which it will be for the Democrats to decide whether to hit or stand.

Kalshi now offers markets on Pete Hegseth’s departure (by whatever means), plus his odds of being impeached. Let’s look at this volatile market as it unfolds.

Pete Hegseth to be Impeached: ‘Yes’ Before Nov. 21, 2026 @ $0.77

Let’s start by examining just what impeachment means in relation to a resolved market on Kalshi. Under market rules, Hegseth must be formally impeached by the date shown.

However, it’s dependent on the U.S. House of Representatives adopting at least one article of impeachment against him. That means a vote, and with the GOP still in charge, that’s not guaranteed.

Traders have seen enough, however. Hegseth’s odds of being impeached before Nov. 21 were just 14% before the weekend. The implied probability has surged to 77% after Republican congressman Thomas Massie said he planned to force a vote.

Donald Trump came out in support of Hegseth, saying he would stand by him. He had, in Trump’s words, “won two wars”. He also snapped at a CNN reporter, calling Massie a “stone, cold loser.”

There is certainly value in buying ‘No’ here at a new low of $0.23. There’s no guarantee that the GOP will vote to impeach, and they may wait for POTUS to do the hard work for them. Our pick: Hard to ignore the ‘Yes’ chatter – Kalshi, $0.77

Pete Hegseth Out as Defense Secretary: ‘Yes’ Before Apr. 1, 2027 @ $0.73

The Republicans lose control of Congress in January. For Donald Trump, he still has two years of his term left. Does he really want to see the Democrats introduce – and vote in – and impeachment against his trusted defense secretary?

Possibly not.

Trump has said he’s worried about the Democrats pushing for impeachment of a list of Republicans. Could that lead to him playing safe and removing Hegseth from office before Congress does it?

The April 1 deadline factors in a few months of Democrat control. If the writing is on the wall, he may move early.

Hegseth himself could double down on his decision to go to war in Iran. He has a press conference scheduled for today where he is expected to address the conflict and the threat of impeachment. A resignation today is unlikely.

Our pick: Hegseth to leave or be replaced – Kalshi, $0.73

Conflicting reports suggest Pete Hegseth’s job is on the line. A volatile Trump could decide his fate, but his flipping position isn’t as volatile as the prediction markets. We’ll keep revisiting this changing market as the political landscape develops.