Pete Hegseth Prediction Markets: Chances of Early Exit Soar After Republican Midterms Wipeout

The Republicans are still sifting through the wreckage of the midterms, but one predictable fall guy is emerging: Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth.

Hegseth is now a 72% chance on Kalshi to be out of a job before Feb. 1, 2027. He’s also a 70% implied probability to be gone before New Year’s Day.

The Republicans need a scapegoat right now, and the architect of the US-Iran War fits the bill. He’s also created enemies in the military after a string of high-profile army firings.

The prediction market traders have leapt into action following the midterms. We examine the best value plays on what happens next in the life of Pete Hegseth.

Pete Hegseth Prediction Markets: Best Value Plays

The online prediction markets don’t give Pete Hegseth hope of staying in his job much longer.

The Republicans are baying for blood and the Democrats – who now control both the Senate and House of Representatives – smell their opportunity.

Kalshi offers event contracts on a range of Pete Hegeth markets. You can trade on him just leaving his post, which covers resignation, a firing, or an impeachment. You can also buy and sell contracts on the time of his departure.

Hegseth to Leave as Secretary of Defense: ‘Yes’ Before Feb 1. 2027 @ $0.72

The Republicans have lost Congress, and for many there’s one person to blame: the Secretary of Defense/War.

CBS News reported yesterday that Donald Trump had sought advice from advisers over whether to fire the man who launched a thousand missiles (on Iran).

Some White House aides are blaming the military, but Trump may ultimately look to handing his Defense Secretary his pink slip.

There’s also the matter of Hegseth’s decision to live-stream the execution of Nidal Hasan. He was a former army man who murdered 13 people in 2009. Even that was too much for POTUS to stomach, and he stepped in to block the stream.

Trump doesn’t do “stability” but he may be forced too in what will be a turbulent couple of years. A stable replacement like Ron deSantis has been mooted. But gauging Trump’s mood is beyond even the savviest prediction market traders.

Our pick: Hegseth to go by February – Kalshi, $0.72

Hegseth to be Impeached: ‘No’ Before Apr. 1, 2027 @ $0.51

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky) said this week that impeaching Hegseth is a “week one” priority following the midterms.

He had already called out Hegseth’s “constitutional violations” that extended “beyond the illegal war in Iran.” Those included not only the war in Iran, but also the kidnapping of President Maduro of Venezuela and intimidation of Trump critics.

A House vote could come as early as next week, but the Democratic takeover doesn’t begin until January. There may be enough of a Republican majority any attempts to impeach right now.

Meanwhile, Rep. Jason Crow (D-CO) told CBS News in October that Hegseth “remains incompetent” and that impeachment remains the only solution. And that was before the disastrous midterms.

To force through a Hegseth impeachment after January, the Democrats would still need 67 votes in the Senate to trigger a two-thirds majority. Despite controlling Congress, then, they would need at least 11 Republicans to come onboard. That’s not guaranteed, perhaps one of the reasons why Kalshi traders are selling.

Our pick: No impeachment before April 2027 – Kalshi, $0.51

Will Trump Pardon Hegseth? ‘Yes’ Before Jan. 1, 2029 @ $0.62

Let’s end on a curveball market at Kalshi on whether Donald Trump will pardon Pete Hegseth.

Most of the usual suspects lead this market, including Elon Musk, Trump’s children, and even POTUS himself.

Trump revealed before the midterms that he would use preemptive pardons to protect any staff likely to be in the Democrats’ firing line. “That’s what [Joe] Biden did,” he told the New York Post, and saying he would follow suit as he did for the “J6” (the 1,500 jailed for the storming of the Capitol building on Jan. 6, 2021).

A Hegseth impeachment would not be needed in this case. Trump may decide to pardon his war secretary before any House vote. At $0.62, there’s some value on buying ‘Yes’ contracts.

Our pick: A preemptive pardon warrants a ‘Yes’ buy – Kalshi, $0.62

Check back tomorrow for more trending markets on the prediction exchanges.