Next James Bond Prediction Markets: Robert Pattinson Takes Shock Lead in 007 Race

Robert Pattinson is the surprise market leader to be the next James Bond after it emerged that the British star has auditioned for the role.

Trading volume on Kalshi for the next 007 market has now surpassed the $4 million mark. And until now, with final screen tests well under way, it was assumed that the lucky man would come from one of six shortlisted actors.

Well, throw that theory out of the window: the next James Bond market has had a grenade thrown under it.

Robert Pattinson is now a 35% probability to be named 007, with long-time #1 favorite Jack Lowden behind on 30%. Callum Turner, who’d led this market on Kalshi for months, is now third.

Next James Bond Prediction Market: Pay Attention, 007

The prediction markets have had contracts open (not like that) on who will be named 007 even since Daniel Craig retired the keys to his Aston Martin.

Amazon came in and bought the franchise, with Canadian director Denis Villeneuve confirmed on directing duties.

We do know that the next James Bond will be played by a British actor. However, until this week, it was assumed that 007 would be taken from the world of TV.

Movie heavyweights Robert Pattinson (“Twilight”, “The Batman”) has reportedly auditioned for Denis Villeneuve, alongside fellow Brit Nicholas Hoult (“Superman”).

Are the next James Bond prediction markets right, or are they just trading off the Variety buzz? Let’s examine the new frontrunners at Kalshi.

Robert Pattinson: ‘Yes’ @ $0.35

You watch and wait the 007 market for months, then casting directors throw a curveball like Robert Pattinson.

R-Patt has reportedly auditioned for the role of James Bond, according to Variety. The news comes during the final round of screen tests for the part.

And let’s be clear: Pattinson was nowhere near the “shortlist” coming into November.

Media reports suggested six shortlisted actors were fighting it out to be 007:

• Jack Lowden
• Callum Turner
• Josh O’Connor
• Jacob Elordi
• Harris Dickinson

However, there was always speculative trading on bigger names, including Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy and Aaron Taylor-Johnson.

The next Bond market turned on its head with the Pattinson revelation. And it makes perfect sense: he’s not too old, he has starred in successful franchises (“The Batman”), and he’s tested out his action credentials in films like “Tenet”.

Plus, Pattinson will appear in Denis Villeneuve’s upcoming “Dune: Part Three” this December. The superstars could be aligning.

Our pick: Pattinson the perfect pick – Kalshi, $0.35

Jack Lowden: ‘Yes’ @ $0.30

The Scottish “Slow Horses” star was favorite in the next James Bond market for a long time. However, the news of Robert Pattinson’s audition has thrown the market wide open.

Lowden would become the first Scottish actor since Sean Connery to suit up as 007. He’s also show in “Slow Horses” just what a good action star he can be.

Is it time to sell Lowden? We’d argue he’s a value play here. A ‘Yes’ buy is well-priced, despite it dropping five points overnight.

Our pick: Lowden offers a pretty Moneypenny – Kalshi, $0.30

Nicholas Hoult: ‘Yes’ @ $0.09

Another Brit that U.S. fans know has also been named among the late auditionees.

Nicholas Hoult started out in U.K. teen drama “Skins” but is known across the Pond for his roles in films including “Superman” and “X-Men: First Class”.

Like Pattinson, Hoult reportedly had a “secret” audition to become Bond. However, we could still be weeks away from a final decision by casting directors.

Kalshi traders are not biting (yet), with Hoult’s price steady at just $0.09. Super value or throwing money away? The buy-sell optics look good.

Our pick: The super value play for the “Superman” star – Kalshi, $0.09

Volatile markets like the next James Bond can throw up late surprises. It’s important to follow the showbiz buzz and get out when you spot an offramp. Check back tomorrow for more trending predictions.