NCAA Tournament Prediction Markets: South Region Round of 64 Picks & Preview

Written By Caleb Tallman | Published at March 16, 2026
Florida forward Thomas Haugh (10) handles the ball against Vanderbilt during their semifinal game of the 2026 SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn., Saturday, March 14, 2026.

Are you ready for some March Madness? The NCAA Tournament Brackets are out, and we're going to tell you everything you need to know about the South Region. While Florida is the one seed in this region, the South Region is up for grabs after the Gators' lackluster performance in the SEC Tournament. Sports Prediction Markets have some really intriguing probabilities for this region, too!

We have everything you need to know about prices and probabilities for each of the NCAA Tournament South Region first-round games from the best Prediction Market apps. Not only will we preview each game, but we will also share where to watch NCAA Tournament matchups, the NCAA Tournament locations for the South Region games, and much more.

Prices for all games above via Kalshi, taken on March 15, at 12:29 AM ET

#1-#16 Florida vs. PV/LEH Prediction Markets

Florida earned the top seed in the South Region after a dominant season and enters March Madness looking ready to potentially repeat as National Champs. The Gators play fast, defend at a high level, and have a deep, talented guard group. Prairie View A&M or Lehigh would need a near-perfect game to keep things competitive, which is always a tall order against a one seed. Florida will control this matchup from the opening tip, and the probabilities at Kalshi will likely reflect a heavy favorite after the Prairie View vs. Lehigh First Four game is final.

Where/When to Watch Florida vs. PV/LEH: Fri. March 20, 9:25 p.m. TNT

Florida vs. PV/LEH Location: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL

#8-#9 Clemson vs. Iowa Predictions Markets

This Clemson vs. Iowa matchup is one of the more balanced games in the South Region. Iowa enters with a 21-12 record and a roster capable of scoring in bunches when its shooters get hot. Bennet Stirtz (20 PPG & 4.5 APG) is looking to etch his name as a March legend. It is hard to see him not winning at least one game. Expect this to be one of the tighter probability swings leading up to tip-off as bettors react to the latest Prediction Market News around the tournament.

Kalshi MarketYesNo
Iowa to WinYes 58¢No 43¢
Clemson to WinYes 45¢No 57¢
Iowa Wins by Over 2.5 pointsYes 51¢No 51¢
Over 128.5 Points ScoredYes 54¢No 50¢

Where/When to Watch Clemson vs. Iowa: Fri. March 20, 6:50 p.m. TNT

Clemson vs. Iowa Location: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL

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#5-#12 Vanderbilt vs. McNeese Predictions Markets

Vanderbilt enters the NCAA Tournament after an impressive season, finishing with a 26–7 record. Guard Tyler Tanner (19.1 PPG & 5.1 APG) leads the team in scoring, making him one of the most productive guards in the SEC this season. McNeese earned its bid by winning the Southland Conference Tournament behind Larry Johnson (17.5 PPG) to secure the tournament berth. McNeese proved they could still get into the NCAA Tournament even with a new coach, but they will have a hard time keeping up with Vanderbilt.

Kalshi MarketYesNo
Vanderbilt to WinYes 84¢No 17¢
McNeese to WinYes 17¢No 84¢
Vanderbilt Wins by Over 11.5 pointsYes 49¢No 52¢
Over 150.5 Points ScoredYes 51¢No 52¢

Where/When to Watch Vanderbilt vs. McNeese: Thu. March 19, 3:15 p.m. truTV

Vanderbilt vs. McNeese Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK

#4-#13 Nebraska vs. Troy Predictions Markets

Nebraska earned a No. 4 seed largely because of its elite defense, which has been among the best units in the Big Ten this season. The Cornhuskers also have a strong high-efficiency duo in Pryce Sandfort (17.8 PPG) and Rienk Mast (13.5 PPG). Troy arrives as the Sun Belt representative and will try to speed things up and create transition opportunities. Nebraska likely controls the tempo, though, as they have been a very consistent squad, and it would be shocking if they got upset.

Kalshi MarketYesNo
Nebraska to WinYes 90¢No 11¢
Troy to WinYes 11¢No 90¢
Nebraska Wins by Over 13.5 pointsYes 48¢No 53¢
Over 137.5 Points ScoredYes 50¢No 51¢

Where/When to Watch Nebraska vs. Troy: Thu. March 19, 12:40 p.m. truTV

Nebraska vs. Troy Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK

#6-#11 North Carolina vs. VCU Predictions Markets

North Carolina enters the tournament dealing with some injury concerns, including the absence of star forward Caleb Wilson (19.8 PPG & 9.4 RPG). VCU, meanwhile, comes in hot after winning the Atlantic 10 Tournament and thrives on forcing turnovers with its aggressive defense. That pressure style could cause problems for the Tar Heels if they struggle protecting the ball. This feels like one of the most likely upset games in the South Region, as the Tar Heels have a much lower floor without Wilson.

Kalshi MarketYesNo
North Carolina to WinYes 57¢No 45¢
VCU to WinYes 45¢No 56¢
North Carolina Wins by Over 2.5 pointsYes 50¢No 52¢
Over 154.5 Points ScoredYes 52¢No 53¢

Where/When to Watch North Carolina vs. VCU: Thu. March 19, 6:50 p.m. TNT

North Carolina vs. VCU Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville, SC

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#3-#14 Illinois vs. Penn Predictions Markets

Illinois enters March Madness with one of the most talented rosters in the South Region. Freshman standout Keaton Wagler (17.9 PPG) has emerged as a major scoring threat and helped power one of the higher-scoring offenses in the bracket. Penn earned its bid by winning the Ivy League Tournament and relies heavily on strong perimeter shooting. If Illinois gets rolling offensively, though, the Illini should eventually pull away, especially given their significant size advantage.

Kalshi MarketYesNo
Illinois to WinYes 97¢No 4¢
Penn to WinYes 4¢No 97¢
Illinois Wins by Over 25.5 pointsYes 48¢No 56¢
Over 149.5 Points ScoredYes 54¢No 51¢

Where/When to Watch Illinois vs. Penn: Thu. March 19, 9:25 p.m. TNT

Illinois vs. Penn Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville, SC

#7-#10 Saint Mary's vs. Texas A&M Predictions Markets

Saint Mary's once again enters the tournament with one of the most disciplined offenses in the country. The Gaels are known for controlling the tempo and limiting turnovers, which often frustrates more athletic teams. Texas A&M will try to counter with physical defense and aggressive rebounding to create second-chance opportunities. This one feels like a classic toss-up, with a few late possessions deciding the outcome.

Kalshi MarketYesNo
Saint Mary's to WinYes 58¢No 43¢
Texas A&M to WinYes 43¢No 58¢
Saint Mary's Wins by Over 2.5 pointsYes 54¢No 48¢
Over 148.5 Points ScoredYes 49¢No 56¢

Where/When to Watch Saint Mary's vs. Texas A&M: Thu. March 19, 7:35 p.m. truTV

Saint Mary's vs. Texas A&M Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK

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#2-#15 Houston vs. Idaho Predictions Markets

Houston enters the tournament as one of the most battle-tested teams in the country and a legitimate Final Four contender. The Cougars are known for elite defense and rebounding, which often wears down opponents over the course of a game. Idaho will need a strong shooting night to stay competitive against Houston's physical style. Expect the Cougars to gradually pull away in the final 10-15 minutes of the game, as they will dominate the boards and limit good shot opportunities for Idaho.

Kalshi MarketYesNo
Houston to WinYes 98¢No 3¢
Idaho to WinYes 3¢No 98¢
Houston Wins by Over 22.5 pointsYes 56¢No 46¢
Over 136.5 Points ScoredYes 49¢No 53¢

Where/When to Watch Houston vs. Idaho: Thu. March 19, 10:10 p.m. truTV

Houston vs. Idaho Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK