Midterms Prediction Markets: Will Trump Pull the Emergency Action Lever?

The midterms prediction markets continue to attract millions in trades on the major exchanges like Kalshi and Polymarket.

With just a few days until the midterm elections, Donald Trump is busy pulling out his big plays ahead of what could be a chastening night for the Republicans.

The Loki of international politics is already trying to discredit the result – whatever it is – of the Nov. 3 election. Trump has openly said he may challenge the election as an “emergency action”.

Meanwhile, the Department of Justice has been indicting alleged “non-citizens” on voting fraud, with zero proof of any wrongdoing.

Trump Midterms Prediction Markets: Value Plays

The prediction markets have hundreds of event contracts to buy and sell covering midterms balance of power, individual states, and winners of the House and Senate.

A Democrat clean sweep of the House and Senate seems more like a slam dunk than ever. They have a 67% chance of winning the Senate, according to Kalshi. The implied probability of a House takeover is even stronger at 91%.

However, with Trump starting to sow seeds of doubt in election voters’ minds, there are some interesting value plays to find right now.

Will Trump Declare an Election Emergency? ‘Yes’ Before Jan 1. 2027 @ $0.30

The 2020 election is attracting plenty of Google searches right now as Donald Trump brings up his views on his loss to Joe Biden. POTUS has always insisted the election was rigged and denies ever losing.

Trump is now openly talking about invoking a national emergency measure if the midterms go badly. However, any move to block the elections would be unconstitutional and even his own insiders have advised against it.

That hasn’t stopped Kalshi traders weighing in on ‘Yes’ contracts that Trump will declare a national emergency based on the midterms.

The likelihood of a pre-November call (‘Yes’ at $0.09) seems low. However, you can buy ‘Yes’ event contracts on Before Jan 1. 2027 at a higher price of $0.30. There’s still value at that price point and factors in any midterms annihilation.

Our pick: Trump to take the nuclear option – Kalshi, $0.30

Will Trump Resign During His Term? ‘Yes’ @ $0.21

Whatever you think of Donald Trump, he’s not a quitter, but trading on an early exit has value, however unlikely. POTUS has shown signs of physical and mental wear and tear in the past year and was even filmed recently saluting, well, nothing in particular outside Marine One.

The chances of impeachment from the Democrats are climbing but both previous attempts failed. The Democrats may want to go for the kill if they sweep the House and Senate before Trump finishes his final term. It would also deny Trump the chance to somehow manufacture an unconstitutional third term.

Resigning early could help the Republicans. The GOP would likely replace Trump with JD Vance, untainted by midterms losses. It would also give him time to bed in before fighting a presidential election that’s frighteningly close.

Our pick: Has Trump had enough? Kalshi, $0.21

Will Trump be Impeached? ‘No’ @ $0.34

Superstitious traders may be amused by the current price of President Trump being impeached. He’s currently 66.6% (no, really) to be impeached during his current term.

Let’s look at the likelihood. Trump will lose the midterms: it’s just a question of how bad the fallout will be.

However, the current feeling is that the Democrats won’t risk a third impeachment, having lost the first two. Trump has no more terms (unless he changes the constitution) and will likely stagger toward the next election with JD Vance ready to assume the challenger position.

Kamela Harris advised Democrats this week against attempting another impeachment attempt. The Democrats’ attitude, Harris said, should be to “get stuff done” if they win the House.

Our pick: Do the Democrats have the desire? The ‘No’ is the play – Kalshi, $0.34

The countdown to the midterms continues. Check back next week for more election tips.