Midterms Prediction Markets: Democrats 74% for Clean Sweep as Voting Begins

It’s the most talked-about midterms in recent history and the biggest for the prediction markets. With all the talk, promises, arguments and random press conferences out of the way, it’s time for the American people to vote.  

The Democrats are a 74% probability for a clean sweep of Congress, with the Dems also favorites to take the Senate and House separately.

Over $106 million has been traded on the Congress Balance of Power market alone at Kalshi. Traders are confident that despite all the talk of mail-in ballots or a red resurgence, this is the Dems’ one to lose.

2026 Midterms Prediction Markets: The Big Plays

The prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have been facilitating trades on the midterms for a year.

Kalshi offers dozens of markets on overall control, plus individual event contracts on state governor wins. You can even trade on the margin of victory or combine multiple contracts on one slip.

With hours to go until the main bulk of voting takes place, here are some of the last-minute trending trades.

Balance of Power: Democrats Clean Sweep ‘Yes’ @ $0.75

We tipped a Democrats clean sweep of the Senate and House at $0.62 earlier this month. Making those early trades and selling now would reap a $0.13 profit per share.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election, hence the high probability of a Democrat win. However, the Senate is much closer as only a third of seats are being contested.

There is some value in a D-House, R-Senate outcome at $0.20. However, this is a hedge play if you’re going big on the clean sweep.

Safer bets include the Democrats to control the House of Representatives at $0.94. It’s a low-value play but offers as close to a sure thing as you can get in these midterms.

The Senate has been touted as being a closer battle. However, traders have seen enough to think the Democrats will get the votes needed to tip the balance. At $0.76, the Democrats to win the Senate is a higher-value play than the clean sweep.

Our pick: Dems to take it all – Kalshi, $0.75

Michigan Senate Winner: Abdul El-Sayed Yes’ @ $0.81Texas Senate Winner: James Talarico ‘Yes’ @0.74

On the Senate race markets, there’s an interesting combo featuring two headline-grabbing races.

Abdul El-Sayed (D) is up to $0.81 following a well-orchestrated campaign against Mike Rogers. Kalshi traders predict a +4.9pt margin victory for the left-wing Democrat.

The combo contains another talked-about market in Texas, where the Democrats’ James Talarico is also on the rise. Again, we talked about Talarico in a preview last month when he was a near coinflip at $0.57. There’s still some value play at $0.74 if you combine your trades.

Last month, Republican Ken Paxton was leading this market, but the wind is blowing in Talarico’s direction. Talarico now leads the polls by four points, but polls can be wrong. Kalshi traders think this is less of a close-run fight than the polls suggest.

Our pick: The El-Sayed/Talarico combo plays – Kalshi, $0.81 / $0.74

Will Trump be Impeached During His Term? ‘No’ @ $0.32

An increasingly erratic Donald Trump is entering what will be his last two years in office, whatever happens today. And until POTUS tries to change the Constitution, of course, to fight for a third term.

The odds of a third Donald Trump impeachment have been hovering around the $0.64 mark for a few months. A Democratic clean sweep of the Senate and House would just increase those chances.

There are murmerings from top Democrats for a third impeachment. However, with a lame duck president in the White House, they may save their energies to fight the 2028 election.

More likely is moving further down the trough and hitting Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. However, with many Democrats now believing Trump is out of control, they may attempt impeachment, regardless of the chance of success.

Our pick: Democrats to play it safe Kalshi, $0.32

The 2026 midterms are likely to be hostile, bitter, and closely fought. They’ll also mark one of the biggest weeks for political trading on the prediction markets. Check back this week as we examine the wreckage.