Manchester City Prediction Markets: Traders Bank on a 35% Chance of EPL Expulsion

English Premier League club Manchester City are a 35% probability of being relegated or expelled following the scandal over their financial scandal.

Manchester City were found guilty this week of 114 of the 115 charges laid against them pertaining to financial rule breaches between 2009 and 2018.

The club had until the end of Friday to lodge an appeal. Speculation is growing about the potential punishment: financial penalties, a points deduction, or league expulsion are all on the table.

Now, the prediction markets are pricing up Manchester City’s chances of staying up. Polymarket has a ‘Will Manchester City be relegated from the Premier League in 2026-2027’ market running, with trade volume growing and ‘Yes’ odds increasing.

Manchester City Relegation Prediction Market: ‘Yes’/’No’ Analysis

The English Premier League’s years-long investigation into Manchester City is over. It’s easily the biggest soccer news of the year so far.

The EPL found the club guilty of hiding funding through what they called “sham” contracts, overstating the amount of commercial revenue they were bringing in.

In reality, the league says, the sponsor money was coming directly from the owners. And the numbers were huge, nearly £1 billion ($1.3 billion) during the period covered in the charges.

Polymarket is now offering a market on whether Manchester City will be relegated or expelled this season.

Manchester City to be Relegated in 2026-27: ‘Yes’ @ $0.35

The Polymarket prediction market covers two outcomes: Manchester City to be relegated or expelled during the current 2026-2027 season.

That covers two outcomes: either the club receiving such a large points deduction that they are effectively relegated, or a straight expulsion.

Experts and former Manchester City players and executives have been speculating through the shock at what punishment the club will receive. A transfer embargo seems likely, as does a points deduction.

There is precedent for a club to be expelled for financial misdealing. Scottish club Glasgow Rangers were kicked down several leagues back in 2012 after a severe financial collapse.

For a Manchester City relegation/expulsion, ‘Yes’ event contracts were selling on Polymarket for as high as $0.50 when the EPL verdict was announced this week. Traders have since cooled their position, selling down to $0.35. An appeal is likely, and given that the original verdict took years to reach, another delay is possible.

Our pick: The league to come down hard in 2026/27 – Polymarket, $0.35

‘No’ – Man. City to Stay Up @ $0.66

There’s one thing everyone agrees on: Manchester City will be punished — and punished heavily.

The severity of the charges laid on the club can’t be overstated. They hid what were effectively inflated salaries and sponsorship deals worth hundreds of millions.

They flouted league financial fair play rules, and other clubs suffered as a result. Plus, the league accused club officials of making “dishonest” witness statements during the investigations.

The “sham” contracts also coincided with the club's most successful period: multiple league and cup wins, and a much-sought-after Champions League trophy.

Some of those championship titles may be stripped, and the club could be fined or even forced to sell players. But a huge points deduction or expulsion? That’s what sports prediction markets can’t agree on right now.

Manchester City will appeal, as they deny any wrongdoing. The club has also said the “sham” sponsorship deals it’s accused of were “misunderstood” by the Premier League.

The ‘No’ trade here factors in several outcomes: Manchester City is let off (unlikely), it receives a small points deduction that won’t affect its chances of staying up this season, or the matter is deferred until next year. All outcomes would result in a ‘No’ contract resolving at $1.00.

Our pick: Man. City play the long game – Polymarket, $0.66 

This trending prediction market story is set to rumble on. However, we’ll focus on more top-trending markets to trade next week.