English Premier League Prediction Market: Arsenal 52% After Win

Arsenal lead the English Premier League prediction market after a storming opening-day win over Coventry.

The English league champions are a 52% probability with traders on Kalshi, with Manchester City a next-best pick at 20%. Chelsea are even further back at 12%, according to the weight of money right now.

The English Premier League kicked off on Saturday, with the reigning champions securing three points in a routine win. Kalshi traders have obviously seen enough to make Arsenal even stronger favorites, with contracts trading some 11 points higher than Friday.

English Premier League Prediction Market: Frontrunners

Our look at the prediction markets shows Arsenal the strong favorite across Kalshi and Polymarket.

The 52% probability judged by Kalshi traders equates to -108 at online sportsbooks, or a 12/13 odds-on bet.

The 52% probability (52ȼ per share traded) represents a coin-flip at the start of what is a long English Premier League season. However, it still illustrates value for a team that has strengthened over the summer.

We take a look at the EPL frontrunners with the first weekend of fixtures concluded.

Arsenal: ‘Yes’ @ $0.52

Last season’s EPL champions Arsenal made light work of Coventry (promoted this year) in a 3-0 win at the Emirates.

Kai Havertz, Bukayo Saka, and Martin Ødegaard were all on the scoresheet, with contributions coming from defensive pair Riccardo Calafiori and Ben White.

It was a convincing victory, made even more impressive due to sluggish displays from most of Arsenal’s rivals.

The Arsenal defence has been strengthened, and they were even without new signing Bruno Guimaraes for this clash. Rivals be afraid…

Our pick: Go with the Gunners at Kalshi, $0.52

Manchester City: ‘Yes’ @ $0.20

Manchester City are experiencing life without Pep Guardiola after he stepped away from the club last season.

Last season’s runners-up were second-best against a spirited Bournemouth side in the opening fixture at the weekend. Only two late goals (a City specialty) helped them to a 2-1 win.

This is very much a transitional time for Manchester City, with Rodri leaving a big hole in the team’s midfield. A new manager in Enzo Maresca will also need time to bed in.

Our pick: Manchester City are the value play at Kalshi, $0.21

Liverpool: ‘No’ @ $0.91

Even with a new coach in form of the highly regarded Andoni Iraola, Liverpool showed in their opening 2-2 draw vs. Newcastle that they are a work in progress.

Liverpool spent big last season and still finished fifth, leading to the sacking of title-winning manager, Arne Slot.

Iraola comes from Bournemouth with a huge amount of respect and a reputation for attacking possession-based soccer.

Liverpool had 27 attempts on goal during their 2-2 draw yesterday. However, most of the side had off-days, with the striking partnership of Alexander Isak and Floran Wirtz particularly quiet.

The transition looks like continuing this season, and a ‘No’ at $0.91 after Gameweek 1 is the sensible move.

Our pick: Go 'No’ on the Reds at Kalshi, $0.91

We’ll have more picks from the prediction markets tomorrow. Check back for the latest analysis.