Best Picture Prediction Markets: ‘The Odyssey’ Pulls Ahead

The Best Picture prediction market is heating up as traders speculate on who will win the biggest Oscar prize next year. Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’ is now an even bigger 59% shot, according to Kalshi traders.

But is it too early to buy into the Nolan hype so early in the market? Are they getting ahead of themselves with ‘Dune: Part Three’ yet to drop? And could ‘The Odyssey’ represent the best ‘No’ value play around?

Best Picture Oscar Prediction Market: Frontrunners

We have checked the prediction markets to assess the frontrunners on the Best Picture Oscar board. Over $4.3 million has been traded on this Kalshi prediction market so far, with plenty more to come as the Academy Awards race continues to heat up.

The beauty of these types of film prediction markets is that they are highly volatile. Prices change daily based on a Reddit thread or a well-time X post.

It can be frustrating trying to keep up with all the changes. However, it also provides you with an out if you want to sell early and lock in a profit on your event contracts.

Check out the latest prices at Kalshi and see if you can spot value in these volatile markets.

‘The Odyssey’: ‘Yes’ @ $0.59

Cinematic events don’t come much bigger than ‘The Odyssey’, Christopher Nolan’s all-conquering adaptation of the Homer poem.

‘The Odyssey’ has been the easy frontrunner in the Best Picture Oscar market since it went live on Kalshi. However, traders corrected slightly with a sell-off in mid-April before the movie dropped.

The $0.23 offered then was the right time to buy contracts. ‘The Odyssey’s price has doubled following a massive box office opening and universally great reviews.

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences loves Nolan. He makes thought-provoking blockbusters that challenge audiences and bring in lots of money. It’s part of the reason that his ‘Oppenheimer’ took the plaudits in 2024. Unless ‘Dune: Part Three’ is the best three-quel of all time, expect an easy Best Picture Oscar win for ‘The Odyssey’.

Our pick: Extend your journey with ‘The Odyssey’ at Kalshi, $0.59

 ‘Dune: Part Three’: ‘Yes’ @ $0.15

Denis Villeneuve is the proto-Nolan who has some awesome work behind him (‘Arrival’, ‘Sicario’, ‘Dune’) but is yet to pick up a Best Picture gong.

That could change if you want to go for the value pick in ‘Dune: Part Three’.

Like ‘Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King’, successful three-quels can do well with Academy voters. ‘LoTR: TRotK’ wasn’t the best movie released that year. However, it did wrap up a hugely successful franchise – and made a heap at the global box office.

True, the ‘Dune’ series is a little more highbrow. However, ‘Dune: Part Three’ may well attract Oscars voters who want to reward a filmmaker breaking new ground in an industry that’s sadly lacking in that department.

Our pick: Back ‘Dune: Part Three’ as a shock Best Picture value pick at Kalshi, $0.15

‘Wild Horse Nine’: ‘Yes’ @ $0.09

Martin McDonagh’s (‘In Bruges’, ‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’) is back with his latest black comedy caper.

As in ‘In Bruges’, there’s another odd couple pairing, as John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell head out to Easter Island (via Chile) on a CIA mission.

McDonagh is huge Oscar-bait, picking up nominations for many of his films. He may be a better bet in the Best Director category, but he’ll face stiff competition from Nolan, Villeneuve, and Alejandro González Iñárritu (‘Digger’).

Low-risk value plays like ‘Wild Horse Nine’ are great for long-term gain. Buy low now, wait until the reviews come out, then sell like crazy to secure a profit.

Our pick: Play the long game at Kalshi, $0.09

The 2027 Oscars are months away, but you can still trade on the Best Picture hopefuls now. Trade carefully and check back tomorrow for more top picks.