Best Picture Oscar Prediction Markets: ‘Digger’ Slumps as Bad Reviews Dominate

The Best Picture Oscar prediction market is heating up on Kalshi, with nearly $8 million traded so far. And the volatility of a market that doesn’t resolve for months is evident, with early optimism for Tom Cruise’s ‘Digger’ disappearing in a flurry of terrible reviews.

Leading the prediction markets to take down Best Picture 2027 is still Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’. It’s still a coinflip at 50% months ahead of the nominations. However, it’s also a good time to find value in the challengers.

Can indie buzz for ‘Wild Horse Nine’ improve its chances, and is there value in ‘Dune: Part Three’ at 10% as we near the release date?

2027 Best Picture Oscar Prediction Market: Who to Pick

The prediction markets offer trades on a range of 2027 Oscar contracts. By far, the Best Picture Oscar market is attracting the biggest money as nomination-worthy (and not so worthy) films hit the theaters.

You can trade on the Best Picture winner, Best Actor, or a host of other related markets now at Kalshi.

‘The Odyssey’: ‘Yes’ @ $0.50

Christopher Nolan’s Homeric epic is the clear frontrunner with Kalshi traders. It did huge box office (always a winner with Academy voters) and was a hit with the critics, too.

Plus, a Nolan film finally broke the cherry of not winning a major Oscar when ‘Oppenheimer’ triumphed in 2024.

Matt Damon is an interesting value play for Best Actor at $0.26, too. He will face stiff competition from John Malkovich (‘Wild Horse Nine’) but Damon is the sensible parlay choice if you want to up the odds.

Our pick: ‘The Odyssey’ is still the film to beat – Kalshi, $0.50

‘La Bola Negra’: ‘Yes’ @ $0.28

‘La Bola Negra’ (‘The Black Ball’) achieved a 92% Rotten Tomatoes score and wowed the critics at Cannes this year.

It tells the stories of three gay men at different points in Spanish history: 1932, 1937, and 2017. It’s been described as “sweeping”, “theatrical”, and “deeply moving”. It also features a brief cameo from Penelope Cruz. What more do you want?

The $0.28 on a ‘La Bola Negra’ win is a thin value pick. However, it might be a better option for the ‘Best International Feature Film’ category where a ‘Yes’ contract is $0.82.

Our pick: The international value play – Kalshi, $0.28

‘Digger’: ‘Yes’ @ $0.01

Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s satirical comedy is the perfect example of when not to trade on a film too early. Starring Tom Cruise as a detestable oil baron, ‘Digger’ was meant to be the ‘Mission: Impossible’ star’s big reset after a decade of action films.

In fact, ‘Digger’ was trading as high as $0.44 on Kalshi in the summer before the film was released.

That was until the first reviews dropped.

‘Digger’ has flopped at the box office and received reviews describing the film as “exhausting”, “a disappointing waste of a superb team”, and “not funny”.

‘Digger’ is now just a $0.01 ‘Yes’ in the prediction markets. That offers serious value but a lot of faith, too.

Our pick: Is ‘Digger’ the best value option ever? Kalshi, $0.01

You can trade on who will win the Best Picture Oscar right now. Discover lots of connected markets, too. Don’t forget to check back tomorrow to find more top trending picks in the markets.