2028 US Election Prediction Markets: JD Vance, Republicans Lead

J.D. Vance is officially ahead in the U.S. election prediction market, according to the latest Kalshi trading.

Only a few months ago, Vance and Marco Rubio were seemingly fighting for Donald Trump’s official endorsement. But when it comes to who will become the 48th POTUS, Vance is ahead of Rubio and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Over $62 million has been traded on Kalshi for what will be an era-defining U.S. election. Will the Republican “young guns” continue Trump’s legacy, or is it time for a change?

2028 US Election Prediction Market: Frontrunners

There are two years until the 2028 U.S. election, but the prediction markets have already seen millions traded on who walks through the White House doors next.

However, first there’s the matter of the midterms to get through. Those could dramatically change the U.S. election prediction market in favor of one party or another.

Kalshi offers a range of election-related markets to trade on, including the outright winner and who gets the party nominations.

J.D. Vance: ‘Yes’ @ $0.20

J.D. Vance is the new favorite to become Donald Trump’s heir in 2028, but it didn’t look that way a while back.

The VP has been promoting his new memoir, which has not only grabbed him the spotlight but also given him a little more gravitas. Vance has also been one of the most vocal opponents (in relative terms) to the ongoing US-Iran war.

Trump wouldn’t come out and back either Vance or Rubio for the nominee when pressed earlier this year. That was seen in some quarters as antipathy on Trump’s part, but he’s since changed his tune.

If you think the GOP will win the 2028 election, Vance is the smart pick here.

Our pick: Go with the vice-president at Kalshi, $0.20

Marco Rubio: ‘Yes’ @ $0.13

Rubio’s $0.13 (down from a market-leading $0.20 in the spring) represents value, but only if you think the Republicans will win the 2028 U.S. election.

Rubio’s star has waned of late, and there are reports that he would be unlikely to run for the presidency anyway.

The latest poll among Republican voters puts Rubio at 12% (compared to Vance’s 32%) in the list of preferred GOP candidates. That ‘Yes’ buy at $0.13 is looking speculative, at best.

Our pick: Marco Rubio is the value play at Kalshi, $0.13

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: ‘Yes’ @ $0.13

AOC took the top spot among Democratic nominee hopefuls this week. The leftwing Democrat candidate is vying with Rubio for the runner-up spot in the Kalshi market.

It’s looking increasingly likely that Ocasio-Cortez will snatch the Democratic nominee spot from slick Californian, Gavin Newsom.

The next question is: can AOC triumph where Hillary Clinton failed? No woman has ever won the U.S. presidency, and a shift to the left would fly in the face of how the USA has been going the past 10 years.

However, Zohran Mamdani’s New York mayoral win showed that in a polarized world, anything is possible.

Our pick: AOC could be the leftfield disruption: Kalshi, $0.13 

The 2028 U.S. presidential election isn’t decided for years, but that hasn’t stopped millions being traded on the outcome. Check back tomorrow to see which other trending markets are grabbing the headlines.