2026 US Open Prediction Markets: Sabalenka, Gauff Lead Women

The 2026 U.S. Open is here, and the tennis prediction markets are cranking up with the big prices on the men’s and women’s contracts.

We covered the men’s draw yesterday, so let’s take a closer look at the women’s singles.

It’s a wide-open race this year, with two-time winner Aryna Sabalenka vying for favoritism with home hope Coco Gauff. A lack of form means Sabalenka isn’t as high a probability (22%) as she probably should be.

The beauty of the U.S. Open draw at prediction markets is that you can buy shares now before a ball has been served. A stumbling first-round win could send prices plummeting, and that’s your chance to sell long before the final.

Women’s US Open Winner Prediction Market: Frontrunners

Kalshi and Polymarket both offer event contracts on the men’s and women’s singles winners at the U.S. Open.

You still have a few days until the first round is played in anger. This is the time for the final qualification spots to be filled. It’s also a good time to assess the favorites’ route through the competition.

So far, over $7 million has been traded on the U.S. Open singles at Polymarket. With fortunes changing on every ace and every set, the prices can be volatile.

Aryna Sabalenka: ‘Yes’ @ $0.22

As we saw in the men’s singles prediction market, the favorite in the women’s draw comes in with form and injury worries.

Sabalenka comes into the U.S. Open on the back of wins at Indian Wells and the Miami Open. However, those wins were in March, and it hasn’t been plain sailing since.

Admittedly, Sabalenka wasn’t a nailed-on cert to win Wimbledon. However, a fourth round exit at last week’s Cincinnati Open (won by Coco Gauff) doesn’t bode well. Is the U.S. Open “three-peat” causing jitters for Sabalenka?

Our pick: The low price warrants a buy at Polymarket, $0.22

Coco Gauff: ‘Yes’ @ $0.16

Coco Gauff represents much better value in the U.S. Open prediction markets at $0.16.

She defeated Jessica Pegula last weekend (6–2, 6–4) at the Cincinnati Open in winning her twelfth WTA Tour title.

Gauff should have reached her first Wimbledon final in July before making a rookie error in the match against Karolina Muchova. It was the first time she’d made a Wimbledon semi, and she’ll be looking to make up for it in her home Grand Slam.

Our pick: Gauff the home value pick at Polymarket, $0.16

Elena Rybakina: ‘Yes’ @ $0.06

Curiously, some of the biggest trade volume on the women’s U.S. Open winner has been on Elena Rybakina. Trades on the Kazakh player are double that of either Gauff or Sabalenka.

In fact, Rybakina was a 41% chance with Polymarket traders in May following her win in Stuttgart over Karolina Muchova.

Injury and loss of form have meant Rybakina has had a patchy year to this point. Most recently, she lost to Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinals of the Cincinnati Open. However, the loss was down to retirement, and she’ll be looking to make amends for the U.S. Open first round this week.

At $0.06, Rybakina is certainly a low-risk value buy but keep an eye on injury timeouts.

Our pick: We’re backing Rybakina for a rankings push at Polymarket, $0.06

The 2026 U.S. Open prediction market is nearly as volatile as an on-court outburst. Trade carefully, remember to lock in profits, and check back tomorrow for more market picks.