2026 US Open Prediction Markets: Alcaraz Leads the Men

The 2026 U.S. Open is back, with prediction markets kicking into gear as the big guns get ready to serve the big aces.

Carlos Alcaraz is back after a four-month layoff. He’s also a 30% favorite, despite traders selling their contracts following doubts over his fitness.

We assess some of the big trades on Kalshi and see whether Alcaraz can benefit from a Sinner-less Grand Slam.

US Open Prediction Market: Frontrunners

The 2026 U.S. Open “Fan Week” is here, with qualifiers desperate to earn their spot in the main draw.

It also offers traders on the prediction markets a chance to finalize their buys and digest last-minute injury news.

You can trade on the U.S. Open on Polymarket now. And with $10 million in shares bought and sold days before the event starts, there’s plenty of action guaranteed.

Carlos Alcaraz: ‘Yes’ @ $0.30

Let’s start with the obvious favorite to win the Men’s U.S. Open title. Spaniard, Carlos Alcaraz, has been out since April with a wrist injury.

However, the two-time U.S. Open champion has a relatively clear run after rival Jannik Sinner withdrew.

So confident is Alcaraz of a return that he’s also entering the mixed doubles with Serena Williams.

We are torn about tipping a $0.70 ‘No’ trade here. However, at $0.30 for one of the greatest ever players, that price represents value.

Our pick: Go with the favorite at Polymarket, $0.30

Alexander Zverev: ‘Yes’ @ $0.20

Incredibly, Alexander Zverev had never won a Grand Slam until winning at Roland Garros back in June.

He has previous form at the U.S. Open, reaching the final in a spectator-less Covid-era final in 2020. However, he fell short of what would have been a first major title.

Zverev is 30 now, and with Sinner out and a recovering Alcaraz back, this could be the form player’s best chance of a U.S. Open win.

Our pick: Zverev is the value play at Polymarket, $0.20

Ben Shelton: ‘Yes’ @ $0.07

The American player’s contract price has shot up this week following positive vibes from the U.S. press and Patrick McEnroe, among others.

“I’m picking Big Ben, I’m going for it,” said McEnroe yesterday on ESPN.

So, why is Shelton the 7% top value pick? He’s seeded well (at #9) and has no Jannik Sinner to worry about.

Plus, Shelton became the first tennis pro since Novak Djokovic to triumph at the Canadian Open without dropping a set. An omen? At 7%, with a chance to sell contracts later, it could be the smart play.

Our pick: Go American on Ben Shelton at Polymarket, $0.07

With a relatively wide-open U.S. Open, there’s value to find in the prediction markets. Check back tomorrow as we show you how to buy, sell, and trade event contracts on the women’s draw.