2026 Midterms Prediction Markets: Vivek Ramaswamy Slumps in Ohio Governor Race

The midterms prediction markets are ramping up, with battles getting more intense. Nowhere is the fight to become governor more intense than in Ohio, where Republican Vivek Ramaswamy is attracting headlines for all the wrong reasons.

Ramaswamy is Donald Trump’s choice of Republican runner as he takes on the Democratic candidate, Amy Acton.

However, the Republican hopeful has attracted anger for running an ad accusing Acton of lying about a past rape case. The ad features Acton’s estranged mother saying she lied about being raped by her stepfather.

What that’s done to the prediction market on the Ohio governor race is solidified Acton’s probability of winning.

Ohio Governor Prediction Market: Frontrunners

The prediction markets are facilitating trades on dozens of midterms results. The balance of power looks set for the Democrats, with a 66% probability of controlling the Senate and 91% to control the House.

However, individual governor races are more volatile and can swing based on one controversial quote or ad campaign.

You can find hundreds of such markets now at Kalshi. The margin of victory prediction market is attracting hundreds of millions of dollars alone.

Amy Acton: ‘Yes’ @ $0.78

Mike DeWine is the incumbent but is vacating the Ohio governor post next month. That means it’s all to play for in the Buckeye State.

And what a heated battle it has been.

Over $3.4 million has been traded on the Ohio governor market so far. There hasn’t been a Democratic governor since Ted Strickland (2007–2011).

However, with midterms swinging further away from the Republicans, Amy Acton has become the clear favorite.

Polling is tight (48% vs 44% to Acton), but Kalshi traders think otherwise. Since Ramaswamy’s controversial ad, Acton’s win probability has risen from 69% to 78%. The trend has been moving in Acton’s favor since August.

Our pick: Acton to take the governor’s chair – Kalshi, $0.78

Vivek Ramaswamy: ‘Yes’ @ $0.22

Is there value in backing Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio, even after that ad campaign?

Ohio is considered a tossup, according to the latest polls in the New York Times.

Amy Acton is up in the CNN poll, but the pair are polling even in the latest NYT poll. However, Ramaswamy is up three points in the newest ActiVote poll (to 51%–49% for the Republican candidate).

Kalshi traders are pushing the Acton narrative, however, together with a general malaise for Donald Trump. This is borne out in the US Senate prediction market, where the Democrats are priced at 65% chance on the Kalshi board.

Our pick: Vivek the value play – Kalshi, $0.22

Ohio Senate Winner: Sherrod Brown (D) ‘Yes’ @ $0.65

The Ohio Senate race has attracted $7.8 million in trading volume. Trades have moved roughly in line with the governor race in the state.

Incumbent Jon Husted was tied with Sherrod Brown up until October. However, Brown is pulling head, with Kalshi traders giving him a 65% chance of taking the seat.

Brown lost this race two years ago, but a return would follow the trend of polls in other states. As with other Ohio races, caution is advised.

Our pick: Sherrod Brown to take Senate – Kalshi, $0.65

Check our trending prediction market picks this week as the midterms vote nears.