Best Tech Prediction Markets for US Players 2026: Your Ultimate Guide to Tech Trading

You can have a fun experience making predictions on tech if you’re at the right site. We know what to look for in a prediction market site, and after some tests, we picked Kalshi and Polymarkets as the two top sites for tech-related predictions. You’ll learn how both sites work and discover how we chose them.

Our guide also covers two alternative sites you should visit if you want to try other prediction market niches.

The Best Tech Prediction Markets in 2026

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Brand

Bonus

Features

Trade

1

100% up to $20

• US trade war and Fed rates predictions
• Markets on inflation and taxes
• Macro indicators and treasury event contracts

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Must be 18 years or older and have a legal, U.S. residential address within the applicable state, D.C., or U.S. territories. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV and OH.

2

$10 Bonus

• Markets include Fed rate decisions, inflation releases, jobs reports, and GDP data
• Traders respond to macroeconomic indicators and financial news with price-driven outcomes
• Plenty of options for traders who enjoy economic analysis

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3

100% up to $250

• Trade on outcomes tied to major economic indicators and announcements
• Markets adjust instantly to shifts in the global financial landscape
• Fixed-payout contracts keep your risk clear to manage

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List of All Tech Prediction Markets in the US

Top Trending Tech Markets Today

Here are top three trending tech markets today:

AI: Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude - Yes 52¢ / No 48.1¢
• Gemini - Yes 22.7¢ / No 78.8¢
• ChatGPT- Yes 15.6¢ / No 84.5¢

Prices via Kalshi, taken on May 05 at 05:25 AM ET

SpaceX: SpaceX Starship 12th launch?

• Before June - Yes 83¢ / No 20¢

Prices via Kalshi, taken on May 05 at 05:25 AM ET

NASA: NASA lands on the moon?

• Before 2028 Yes 6.2¢ / No 93.9¢
• Before 2029 Yes 37¢ / No 68¢
• Before 2030 Yes 67¢ / No 39¢

Prices via Kalshi, taken on May 05 at 05:25 AM ET

Here are our best sites for tech predictions

To save you the hassle of shopping for reputable sites where you can trade tech event contracts, we’ve handpicked the best sites for you. Here they are:

Kalshi – Highly intuitive interface

Kalshi: Pros and Cons

• Regulated by the CFTC
• Broad category coverage (sports, politics, etc.)
• Transparent pricing and settlement

• Fee structure is fair but complex

Visit Kalshi

Kalshi allows you to trade on an array of tech events, including the latest advancements in the automotive sector, digital streaming ‘wars,’ and the most recent AI innovations.

Some of its available tech prediction events include: Tesla deliveries this quarter?, Best LLM at the end of the year?, Meta number of daily active users this quarter?, Spotify number of subscribers this quarter?, and OpenAI achieves AGI this year?

We like how intuitive Kalshi’s interface is and how the available tech prediction market events are displayed. A couple of clicks offers you access to probability indicators, bid–ask spreads, and other data you need to improve your predictions. The site also has a native app and is fully mobile optimized, so you can trade on the go.

Kalshi also offers a $10 welcome bonus and several other promotions for existing traders. It's CFTC-regulated and deploys several security protocols.

$10 Bonus

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Polymarket – Covers multiple tech prediction events

Polymarket is built on the Polygon blockchain and is currently the world’s largest crypto-based prediction market, allowing you to predict on tech events. However, instead of using the US dollar, its event contracts are priced between 0.00 and 1.00 USDC.

Here are some of the tech events we found during this review: #1 Searched Person on Google this year?, Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?, Game of the year 2025?, Gemini 3.0 Flash revealed by December 31?, Who will replace Musk as Tesla CEO?, and Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?

Its website is easy to use, features a native app, and is fully mobile-optimized. Polymarket also offers a couple of rewards for existing traders and supports decentralized and transparent contract trading.

100% up to $20

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Must be 18 years or older and have a legal, U.S. residential address within the applicable state, D.C., or U.S. territories. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV and OH.

Underdog Predict – Sports-focused app with a clean trading experience

Underdog Predictions Pros & Cons

• Great selection of sports prediction markets
• iOS and Android apps
• Fast withdrawals are available

• No promotions are available

Underdog Predict is not the first platform we’d choose for tech prediction markets, as its strongest coverage is sports. Still, it is worth mentioning as an alternative for users who want a simple app-based prediction market experience. The platform covers sports, politics, culture, and economics, with sports standing out as the deepest category.

During our review, we found event contracts across major leagues and sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, soccer, tennis, and baseball. The app is available on iOS and Android, and the prediction market section is kept separate from Underdog’s other products, which makes it easy to focus on contracts.

Tech-specific coverage is limited compared to Kalshi or Polymarket, but economic-style markets may include technology-adjacent outcomes, such as AI development or company-related events. If you want a mobile-first platform with simple navigation and a sports-heavy event contract library, Underdog Predict is a solid option to keep in mind.

Fanatics Market – Sports-first contracts with wider categories developing

Fanatics Markets Pros & Cons

• Fantastic quality mobile apps
• Simple $1 trade contract setup
• Fully regulated by the CFTC
• Widely available in the US

• Still expanding its markets
• No desktop version

Fanatics Market is a mobile-first prediction market app that focuses mainly on sports, but it is gradually expanding into other real-world event categories. The app lets users trade Yes/No contracts, with prices displayed as probabilities, which makes the experience feel closer to a trading platform than a traditional sports product.

At the moment, Fanatics Market is strongest for sports event contracts across major leagues. However, its wider prediction market structure means it may appeal to users who want a platform that can grow beyond sports into finance, culture, crypto, and technology-related markets over time.

The app has a clean dark interface, low entry points, and a simple layout that makes it easy to find active markets. Tech prediction coverage is not as developed as Kalshi or Polymarket, so this is more of a developing option than a category leader. Still, the Fanatics brand and mobile-first setup make it one to watch as more categories are added.

OG – Crypto.com-powered platform with broad event contract coverage

OG Pros & Cons

• Awesome mobile app with integrated live chat
• Wide variety of event contracts
• Easy pick-up-and-play mechanics
• Excellent refer-a-friend program

• Limited withdrawal payment methods

OG is a standalone prediction market platform powered by Crypto.com. It offers event contracts across several real-world categories, including sports, economics, pop culture, company news, crypto, financials, and political outcomes. That broad structure makes it a useful option for traders who want more than one category in the same app.

For tech predictions, OG is most relevant through company news, financial markets, crypto, and economics-style contracts. These categories can overlap with technology themes, especially when markets involve major public companies, AI, digital assets, product launches, or wider innovation trends.

The platform has a clean app experience, live chat on event pages, and straightforward contract pricing. It also connects closely with Crypto.com’s broader ecosystem, which may appeal to users who already use crypto-focused platforms. OG is not as established as Kalshi or Polymarket for dedicated tech event contracts, but it offers enough category range to make it a strong developing option.

Coinbase – Finance-focused platform with regulated event contracts

Coinbase is one of the most established names in crypto, and its prediction markets give users another way to trade on real-world outcomes rather than only buying and selling digital assets. Its event contracts are offered through Coinbase Financial Markets, which is registered with the CFTC as a futures commission merchant and is an NFA member.

The main strength here is trust. Coinbase is a public company with a large retail user base, a familiar app, and strong brand recognition in the US crypto market. Its prediction markets also sit alongside Coinbase’s wider crypto trading tools, including Advanced Trade, which offers hundreds of markets, TradingView charts, APIs, and volume-based fees.

For tech predictions, Coinbase is likely to appeal most to users interested in crypto, financial technology, market innovation, and company-related outcomes. It may feel more finance-focused than some dedicated prediction market platforms, but for users who want a regulated, crypto-native experience with a familiar interface, Coinbase is a strong option to consider.

DraftKings Predict – Major brand with expanding event contract categories

DraftKings Predict brings event contract trading into a platform many US users already recognize. The product launched in December 2025 and allows users to buy and sell contracts on real-world outcomes through a familiar DraftKings-style interface. It is available on iOS, Android, and web, although market access can vary by state.

Sports is currently the most developed category, with event contracts across college basketball, MLB, NBA, NHL, tennis, golf, UFC, soccer, and Formula 1. However, DraftKings Predict also supports broader event categories depending on availability, which could make it relevant for those interested in technology-adjacent markets as the platform expands.

One thing that stands out is the interface. DraftKings Predict can display markets in a format that existing DraftKings users may find familiar, while still allowing users to trade contracts rather than place wagers. Tech prediction coverage is not yet as deep as Kalshi or Polymarket, but the brand’s infrastructure and user-friendly app make it one to watch.

Quick facts about making predictions on tech

• You can make predictions on tech-related events by trading contracts at prediction sites.
• Two of the best prediction sites for tech event contracts are Kalshi and Polymarket.
• Polymarket covers 35+ tech markets, doesn’t charge trading fees, but is still in its Beta phase in the US.
• Kalshi is available in 50 US states, offers a decent sign-up bonus, and sports a highly intuitive interface.
• Crypto.com and Robinhood offer alternative prediction market niches besides tech predictions.

What are prediction markets and how do they work?

To help you understand how tech predictions work, we’d need to answer the question “What is a prediction market?” first. A prediction market is an exchange where you can trade “Yes” and ‘No” contracts that are tied to the outcome of a specific real-world event. The contracts are binary: they settle at $1 if the event occurs (“Yes”) or $0 if it doesn’t (“No”). The price of the contract reflects the collective belief in the likelihood of the outcome occurring. If a contract is trading at $0.72, the market believes there’s roughly a 72% probability of it happening.

This brings us to the conversation about prediction markets vs. sportsbooks. Some folks believe that sports predictions are the same as sports betting because you’d be predicting events in both situations. That is not the case. You’ll trade against other participants in the markets.

It’s also common to find questions like “What is event trading?” when discussing prediction markets, which use event contracts instead of conventional odds.

How tech prediction markets work

Most top prediction market sites cover lots of real-world events that you can trade contracts on, such as tech, politics prediction markets, sports, entertainment, economics, and financials, among others. However, more traders are becoming interested in the tech niche, which involves forecasting measurable, factual outcomes in areas such as biotech approvals, space missions, or climate milestones.

Similar to other prediction niches, you trade event contracts based on the outcomes of future tech events, and contract prices reflect public opinion on these events. However, contracts are settled based on information from credible sources, such as official reports from government agencies. Once such information becomes public, the contract is automatically settled. As with other prediction market niches, scientific reporting and technological advancements add to a pool of knowledge that can be used to forecast future tech events.

How we picked our tech prediction market sites

There’s an increase in the number of prediction market sites available to prospective traders. However, not all of them are great for trading tech event contracts. To pick our recommended sites, we had to sift through a plethora of options, using specific criteria. Here are the factors we considered:

Regional restrictions

It’s important to pick a site that’s available in your jurisdiction. All the sites on our list are available in most US jurisdictions (Polymarket is only available in its beta phase at the time of writing). However, you should also check for market updates, as federal and state legislation constantly changes.

Event coverage

We checked whether our recommended sites covered a range of tech events you could trade on. For instance, Polymarket offers up to 35+ tech prediction market events that you could trade on. Although Kalshi doesn’t offer as much, it still covers a decent number of tech events.

Liquidity and market depth

Another thing we looked at was whether the site’s market was such that there was always a trader willing to be a counterparty to available contracts. Kalshi and Polymarket provide liquidity data on their markets, so their numbers are always available to view. Their market depth and volume ensure that their contracts had both parties and were acHow do the fees work?

It's also important to be aware of the fees associated with each tech prediction site and how they work. For instance, Polymarket doesn’t charge fees for trading contracts or for depositing or withdrawing USDC. Kalshi doesn’t have a fixed trading fee, as the contract price and market liquidity determine its fees.

Look up the bonuses and promos

Welcome bonuses and ongoing promotions are marketing tactics used by prediction sites to attract new players and retain existing players. Kalshi offers new traders a $10 welcome bonus with a minimum trade requirement of $100 and a 30-day validity period. It also offers a number of other ongoing rewards, such as the volume incentive program, liquidity incentive program, market bug bounty program, and app and website bug bounty program. Although Polymarket currently doesn’t offer a welcome bonus, you can claim its Liquidity Rewards and Holding Rewards for existing traders.

Ease of use

We also checked the ease of use of our recommended sites before picking them. Kalsi and Polymarket have great website interfaces that are really easy to use for trading. They also feature highly responsive native apps for Android and iOS devices that offer the same functionality as the desktop versions. Signing up to both sites is easy, and the trading processes are hassle-free, making them great options for new traders making predictions on tech events.

Other non-tech prediction sites you might want to consider

Just in case you’d like to try something different from making predictions on tech, we’ve found two other prediction sites we think you should try:

Crypto.com – Great for sports predictions

Crypto.com: Pros and Cons

• Offers a wide variety of markets
• Flexible contract values
• Over 350 cryptocurrencies accepted
• Beginner‑friendly interface

• Small trading & withdrawal fees

Visit Crypto.com

Crypto.com has established a reputation as a leading global crypto exchange, but recently entered the prediction market space through a partnership with Underdog, a Fantasy Sports company.

Although Crypto.com offers predictions on markets such as politics, economics, and finance, its standout niche is sports. It covers a wide variety of sports prediction markets, including football, baseball, basketball, hockey, soccer, tennis, and some niche sports. Crypto doesn’t currently offer a sign-up bonus for its prediction market product.

Rather, it occasionally offers limited-time promotions for its new and existing traders. Its website interface might be a lot to handle, but its dedicated app offers better usability.

100% up to $250

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Robinhood – Unique welcome offer

Robinhood: Pros and Cons

• Various contract categories
• Reward programs
• 24/7 live chat support
• Dedicated mobile app

• Some categories have limited markets

Robinhood is an app-based prediction site with a very responsive design that offers great usability when trading event contracts. It doesn’t currently offer tech event contracts, but it does cover contracts in markets such as politics, economics, sports, and entertainment, to name a few.

We like its welcome offer, which awards new traders free stock valued between $5 and $200, with no fixed value. You can’t sell your bonus stock to buy event contracts, but you can reinvest it in fractional shares of another stock that you want to own. We offer more information about how this site’s operations work in our Kalshi vs Robinhood comparison review.

Tech Prediction Market Sites Legality

Tech prediction market sites in the US operate within the broader prediction market framework, where regulated platforms can list event contracts under federal oversight from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Tech-related contracts, such as AI model rankings, company product launches, space mission timelines, app releases, or electric vehicle production figures, are generally closer to economic, corporate, and science-based event contracts than sports event contracts.

Because of that, they have not faced the same level of direct state-level challenge as sports-related markets. Still, the overall legal landscape is changing quickly. Federal regulators, state lawmakers, and courts are still working through how prediction market platforms should be treated, especially when they offer several categories of event contracts from one app.

States such as Nevada, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Maryland have all examined or challenged prediction market activity in different ways, and those debates can affect the wider industry even when the disputed contracts are not specifically tech-focused. So, while tech prediction markets are available through regulated platforms, traders should always check whether a site is available in their state and review the latest terms before purchasing tech event contracts.

Regulatory Timeline

Tech prediction markets are part of the wider event contract industry, so major regulatory changes can affect how these markets are listed, monitored, and resolved. Here are some recent developments worth knowing:

February 2026

• The CFTC formally withdrew its 2024 proposed rule that had broadly targeted event trade contracts, clearing the way for regulated platforms to continue developing markets across categories such as tech, economics, crypto, and politics.

January 2026

• CFTC leadership signaled plans to move toward clearer federal rules for event contract categories, including technology, science, financial, and economic predictions.
• The CFTC reaffirmed its view that federally regulated event contracts fall under its jurisdiction, while also requiring stronger monitoring standards from platforms.
• US lawmakers from both parties increased attention on prediction markets, creating more pressure for clearer rules around how event contracts should be listed and supervised.

December 2025

• Prediction market popularity continued to rise, leading to heavier litigation and legislative scrutiny across multiple states.
• Pennsylvania lawmakers held hearings examining how prediction market activity fits within existing state frameworks, a discussion that could affect multiple categories beyond sports.
• Federal and state disputes intensified as regulators looked more closely at whether certain event contracts should be treated under federal commodities law, state-level rules, or both.

Pros and cons of predicting on tech

Here are the pros and cons of making tech predictions at the best sites:

Pros and Cons

• Hassle-free prediction processes
• Great usability
• Potential rewards and promos

• Possible regional restrictions

Conclusion – Our recommended sites make predictions on tech fun

After testing several sites, we picked Kalshi and Polymarket as the top sites for making tech predictions.

Both sites are easy to use across devices, have impressive liquidity and market depth, and meet all our security requirements. That said, Polymarket covers 35+ tech markets and is still in beta in the US. Kalshi might cover fewer markets, but it's available in 50 US states, offers a decent sign-up bonus, and sports a highly intuitive interface that makes its website easier to use than Polymarket’s.

Either site makes predicting tech events fun and much easier. Signing up is also easy, and all you’d have to do to get started with them is to click on our on-page banners.

Predicting on tech FAQs