Texas Medical Association Proposes Higher Prediction Market Age Limit

Across the nation, prediction markets have been open to those 18 and older. But an association of doctors in Texas believes a higher prediction market age limit is necessary to protect young adults.

The Texas Medical Association made an official statement, calling for a prediction market age limit of 21 years of age. That could have a big impact in the Lone Star State, which currently doesn’t have any form of legal sports betting.

Additionally, the TMA called for limits on advertising. Specifically, it wants to ban prediction markets from using any characters or celebrities who are marketed toward children in their advertisements.

According to Dr. Lindy McGee, an assistant professor at Baylor’s College of Medicine, the TMA’s concern isn’t whether these count as gambling. Instead, the concern is whether adolescents could develop addictive behaviors.

“Although they technically, legally don’t fall under the category of gambling, I’m going to stress that prediction markets, like they’re used today, they’re no different psychologically than any other type of gambling,” McGee said. “We do know in general with gambling that it is very prevalent in the adolescent and young adult population that it can have devastating effects, especially a risk of suicide.”

What Was the Response to a Higher Prediction Market Age Limit Proposal?

Polymarket, one of the main operators of prediction markets, came out against the proposal. However, it’s not clear if its opposition has more to do with the age limit or the state’s position.

Polymarket and Kalshi have fought state regulations tooth and nail. Both have claimed the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) should set the laws governing prediction markets. That includes a higher prediction market age limit, which currently sits at 18 nationwide.

That age limit exists because that’s the minimum age to enter a contract. Some states do allow minors to enter a contract, but the minor can void the contract for any reason until their 18th birthday. Given the nature of Polymarket and Kalshi’s business models, going under 18 in legal states would not work.

The prediction markets seem to be holding fast to the idea of federal authority superseding state efforts. Any variance could be used in another state, giving Polymarket and Kalshi incentive to resist a 21+ prediction market age limit.

How Will Texas Legislators Respond?

It’s likely to be a favorable response in the Texas Senate. Texas lieutenant governor Dan Patrick has opposed any expansion of gambling in Texas. Sports betting in Texas has been debated several times before, but never with any success.

That’s because Patrick has steadfastly refused to consider any gambling bill that doesn’t have the support of the majority of the Texas Senate’s Republican caucus. With the rise of prediction markets, Patrick has instructed the Texas legislature to consider ways to close loopholes that allow the markets to operate.

There is also the possibility that Patrick could lose his bid for re-election. Patrick is seeking a fourth term, and is facing state representative Vikki Goodwin (D-Bee Cave). Although Texas has historically been solidly Republican, a recent Texas A&M poll places Goodwin down just five points. If she were to win, the environment for betting in Texas could become much more favorable.

What Does the Future Hold?

Texas’ legislature is out of session until January. McGee said the TMA is working with the Texas legislature to discuss a higher prediction market age limit. However, the results of the elections in November could change the nature of those discussions.