Prediction Market Newcomer Novig Posts Record First Week

Novig, the prediction market pup, has reported over $125 million in trading volume during its first week of operation.

The challenger to Polymarket and Kalshi only launched on August 4, but it’s already beaten its bigger rivals when comparing first-week volume.

Novig was set up to target sports event contracts, in particular. Kalshi and Polymarket have only recently entered sports, after years of focusing on financials and related markets.

Novig Outperforms Rivals with $127M First Week

Novig won CFTC approval to trade in the U.S. back in June. The timing for Novig was perfect, with the FIFA World Cup just starting.

The launch saw Novig outperform prediction markets in its first week of trading. While Kalshi launched in 2021 with a first-week volume of $6.6 million, Novig enjoyed nearly 20 times that.

First Week Specials: How Prediction Markets Compare

• Novig: $127.9 million
• Kalshi: $6.6 million
• Underdog: $2.5 million
• DKeX: $1.4 million

Novig Bolstered by Sports Focus

Novig’s focus on sports contracts is ultimately the secret to its success early on. The World Cup saw millions traded on outright winner bets and individual game bets.

Kalshi alone, meanwhile, facilitated over $1 billion in trades on the 2026 World Cup winner.

Plus, prediction markets like Novig don’t stop at outright “futures” markets. It also offers the types of markets you’ll find at sportsbooks, such as moneyline, spreads, and props. The big difference is that prices are decided by other traders, not the operator.

The Novig sportsbook began life under a Colorado betting license. It then moved into sweepstakes, themselves under significant legal pressure in the U.S.

The move into federally regulated prediction markets was logical but will arguably enrage state gaming regulators further.

As a federally regulated company, Novig operates under a CFTC license — not as a sports betting platform, but as a prediction market.

Sports Betting Firms to Prediction Market Giants

Several experienced sports betting operators now have prediction market platforms:

• Novig (launched 2026)
• DraftKings Predictions (launched 2025)
• Fanatics Markets (launched 2025)
• FanDuel Predicts (launched 2025-2026)

Could Regulatory Challenges Lie Ahead?

Novig launched nationwide as a Designated Contract Market (DCM). The aim is, according to Jacob Fortinsky, co-founder and CEO, to create the “best place to trade sports and set the standard for what a modern prediction market should be.”

However, lawyers for Kalshi and Polymarket could probably raise a few warning flags for the fledgling platform as state regulators continue to push back.

Many states with existing sportsbook regulation, including Connecticut and Michigan, have spent much of this year battling prediction markets over “illegal betting.”

States argue that prediction markets amount to sports betting and want their services curtailed or outlawed. The platforms and the CFTC say they are derivatives platforms and are regulated by the Commodity Exchange Act. The battle rages on.