Prediction Market Availability Contracts Dominate NFL Season Start

Prediction markets, including Kalshi, are offering availability contracts on the upcoming NFL season in a move that’s sure to create more questions about the industry.

Availability markets allow traders to buy and sell shares on which players they think will appear, or not. A player must appear in the official game record for an appearance market to resolve.

Kalshi and the NFL have a love-hate relationship, with the league pressuring the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in recent months over access to sports-event trading. The integrity of football is at the heart of the NFL’s concerns, and this new market could inflame them.

What are Availability Markets?

Availability markets are a relatively new addition to prediction markets and work a little like player props. You can buy or sell shares in whether a player will or won’t appear on the field.

Savvy Kalshi or Polymarket traders can analyze industry news, or Twitter/X feeds from the teams and pundits to make lightning-fast trades and swap their contracts.

The CFTC is wary of injured-player markets, released a proposal in June opened the door for many types of contracts. However, it warned against contracts likely “to be contrary to the public interest”, such as injuries.

Week 1 Volume Could Eclipse Last Season

The NFL and prediction markets are bracing for what should be a momentous first week of games.

There was a temporary slowdown in trade volume over the summer, despite post-$1 billion trading on the World Cup winners.

However, the new football season is what most American traders are waiting for. More markets, including “exotics” (essentially similar to sportsbook parlays) are blurring the line between sportsbooks and prediction markets even further.

Individual states, such as Connecticut, are fighting – and winning – battles against the market exchanges. However, Kalshi and Polymarket continue to attract more investment, hire more experienced senior staff, and enter more sponsor deals.

NFL Continues to Seek Prediction Market Control Preseason

The NFL has been vocal all year about the risks of insider dealing and manipulation of games.

In March, the NFL asked Kalshi and others to stop offering event contracts on easily manipulated markets. These included so-called “mention markets”, or bets on what stadium announcers might say during the game.

Speaking earlier this year, NFL executive VP Jeff Miller complained that sports prediction markets were “not effectively regulated”. He was also seeking the “necessary guardrails” from the CFTC to protect “both the integrity of the game and consumers participating” in these types of markets.

Additionally, the prediction market regulator, the CFTC, is warning exchanges not to use gambling odds on their sites.

The point is to “prevent confusion” that prediction markets are not like online sportsbooks. It’s the argument being used by multiple states that if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it must be a sportsbook.

Kalshi Waives Fees for NFL ‘Combos’ Creation

Kalshi’s desire to optimize its NFL market seems to stretch to maker fees. While introducing “combo” fees (effectively charges on setting parlay trades) it quietly waived these for NFL-only combos from last week.

The carveout only applies to NFL combos, so MLB and NBA won’t be exempt from the same fees. The change came in on 20 August. The charge also applies to makers only, i.e. traders setting the market. Takers will still be charged.

So-called same-game parlays have been a mainstay of legal online sportsbooks in the U.S. for years. However, the house edge can be prohibitive, and canny traders are moving to prediction markets to take advantage of the lower vig. New availability markets are sure to increase interest in these types of bets.