NFL, California and APIs Are Reshaping Prediction Markets

For most of the past two years, the prediction market story has been about whether the industry could become big. That question feels increasingly outdated. The more interesting question now is what kind of industry prediction markets are actually becoming. Look at the moves being made across the market right now. DraftKings is using prediction markets to reach California customers it cannot reach through its traditional sportsbook.

Gemini is trying to put event contracts inside brokerage platforms through Apex. Kalshi is tweaking fees to win NFL combo liquidity while simultaneously signing partnerships with Major League Baseball teams. Novig, meanwhile, is showing that a newer sports-focused platform can generate meaningful volume almost immediately.

Those stories look unrelated on the surface. Taken together, they show an industry moving past the stage where everyone was simply trying to prove prediction markets had demand. Now companies are fighting over distribution, geography, liquidity, sports partnerships and the customer relationship itself.

Distribution May Matter More Than the Best App

One of the biggest changes is happening somewhere most consumers will never see. Gemini recently signed a non-binding letter of intent with Apex Fintech Solutions that could make Gemini Titan the exclusive regulated venue for crypto event contracts distributed through Apex's futures commission merchant.

That follows another major Apex prediction market partnership involving Kalshi. The takeaway is bigger than either company. Prediction markets may not ultimately be dominated by whichever company convinces the most people to download its standalone app. They could spread through brokerages and financial platforms that already have millions of customers.

That changes the customer acquisition equation considerably. A brokerage does not necessarily need to spend years developing its own prediction market infrastructure. It can increasingly plug into somebody else's exchange, clearing, and technology stack. For prediction market exchanges, that creates a new competition: become the infrastructure sitting underneath other financial brands.

California Shows Why Prediction Markets Are So Valuable

DraftKings provides a completely different example of the same expansion. California voters rejected both major sports wagering proposals in 2022. DraftKings still cannot simply switch on its sportsbook across the state. DraftKings Predictions gives the company another route.

Its event-contract platform is now available in California under the federally regulated prediction market structure.

That puts DraftKings in front of consumers inside America's largest state while the traditional sports wagering debate remains unresolved. That is strategically significant. Prediction markets are no longer simply another product for sportsbook companies to experiment with. They can provide access to markets where the companies' traditional products cannot operate.

California could become one of the clearest demonstrations of that value. If DraftKings can build a meaningful customer base there through Predictions, it can build brand familiarity and user relationships long before California revisits the broader sports wagering question.

The NFL Fight is Becoming a Product Fight

Sports remain another huge battleground, but the competition is becoming much more sophisticated than simply offering contracts on NFL games. Kalshi recently carved out a 0% maker-fee exception for independent NFL-only combo contracts. Combo trades share some similarities with parlays on the traditional sportsbook side because they group multiple outcomes, but they operate through a different event-contract structure.

The fee decision tells us what Kalshi cares about heading into football season: liquidity. Removing maker fees gives professional liquidity providers another reason to quote NFL combos on Kalshi. Better liquidity can create more competitive prices and more available trades, which can attract more customers.

That matters because Polymarket US, Novig, Underdog, and others are all chasing sports users. The NFL season could therefore become less about whether prediction markets attract sports fans and more about which platform provides the experience those users stick with.

Sports Leagues Are Becoming Part of the Race Too

Kalshi's recent baseball push adds another layer. The company signed exclusive multi-year partnerships with the Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres and New York Yankees. That follows an industry-wide rush toward official data, streaming and sports partnerships. This is where prediction markets start looking less like isolated trading exchanges and more like full sports ecosystems.

If one platform has official team relationships, another has exclusive streaming, and another offers deeper liquidity, consumers begin choosing between meaningfully different products rather than nearly identical lists of event contracts. Sports organizations also gain another potential commercial partner competing for rights, sponsorship inventory, and fan attention.

New Entrants Are No Longer Starting From Zero

Perhaps the most overlooked development is how quickly newcomers can now gain traction. Novig reportedly generated more than $125 million in trading volume during its first week after becoming federally regulated. A few weeks later, industry analysis already had the sports-focused platform ahead of Underdog and Robinhood-backed Rothera in parts of the market. That does not mean Novig is suddenly challenging Kalshi for the overall lead.

It does show how dramatically the environment has changed. Kalshi and Polymarket spent years educating consumers about prediction markets. Every new entrant now benefits from that groundwork. A company launching today does not have to explain the entire concept from scratch. It can focus on differentiation. That makes the next phase considerably more competitive than the first.