Nevada Prediction Market Ban Gets Extended to Polymarket

Nevada isn’t playing around with its prediction markets ban — and now Polymarket is subject to its restrictions.

Nevada District Judge Jason Woodbury issued an injunction against Polymarket, preventing the prediction market from operating in the Silver State. It’s the third such injunction from Nevada, and the second from Woodbury’s court.

In March, Nevada sought and got injunctions against Kalshi and CoinBase, preventing them from operating in Nevada. Polymarket hadn’t yet faced an injunction, despite Nevada filing suit months earlier.

The ruling wasn’t a surprise, following Woodbury’s decision on Kalshi in April. In that case, Woodbury agreed with Nevada attorney general Aaron Ford and ordered Kalshi to geofence Nevada until the case is fully decided.

Nevada had sought an injunction against Polymarket in January. Woodbury’s decision means Nevada can block prediction markets throughout the case, which could be important as the state seeks to prove that a prediction market ban should be allowed.

Why Does Nevada Want a Prediction Market Ban?

The Nevada Gaming Control Board has aggressively targeted both sweepstakes casinos and prediction markets such as Polymarket. Nevada has had legal gambling since 1931 and legal sports betting since 1949. Casinos and tourism have long been vital to the state’s economy, and both Las Vegas and Reno draw millions of visitors per year.

In February, Nevada claimed real harm based on the Super Bowl. Traditionally, that’s the largest gambling day of the year. With 186 sportsbooks in place, the books take in over $100 million in bets on that day alone.

This year was no different, as Nevada sportsbooks reported over $133 million wagered. But with Polymarket and Kalshi operating, that was the lowest total on the Super Bowl since 2016.

Notably, Nevada doesn’t allow mobile-only sportsbooks. The state has 12 mobile sportsbooks, but bettors must register in-person at a Nevada casino to play. That has kept the two largest sportsbooks, FanDuel and DraftKings, out of the state.

What Are The Arguments For the Prediction Market Ban?

Nevada has argued that there’s no fundamental difference between prediction markets and gambling. As such, the Silver State believes Polymarket, Kalshi and others should need a license to operate. That would require the prediction markets to pay taxes, affecting their business models.

Operators have tried to skirt the prediction market ban by calling their offerings contracts. But Woodbury didn’t buy that argument, stating in April that Kalshi’s offerings were indistinguishable from sports betting. The same logic appears to have applied against Polymarket.

What Does the Injunction Mean?

It means that the prediction market ban applies until either the case is fully decided, or Woodbury is overruled by a higher court. Currently, the cases sit in state court, which means Polymarket could appeal at the Nevada Court of Appeals. Should the prediction markets ban be upheld there, it could make a final appeal to the Nevada Supreme Court.

Polymarket could also try to move the case to federal court. That hinges on an argument that the federal government should be the sole authority over prediction markets. That approach has been favored by the United States government, in contrast with the states.

Should Polymarket try that route, it would take a while to reverse the ban. In February, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, which has jurisdiction on federal cases in Nevada, ruled in favor of the state when it sought to ban Kalshi. With that precedent, Polymarket might need to reach the Supreme Court to find a favorable ruling.

The injunction also means Woodbury believes the law supports the prediction markets ban. An injunction only comes when a judge believes the plaintiff would be harmed by allowing the defendant to continue, and the plaintiff is likely to win in court. The injunction going into effect likely represents a bad sign for Polymarket’s future in the state.

What Is the Next Step?

The next step is to see if Polymarket appeals, tries to move the case to federal court or lets the case move forward in Nevada courts. The federal government could also attempt to join the case on Polymarket’s side.