Hollywood Implements Insider Dealing Crackdown on Prediction Markets

Hollywood studios are reacting to the threat of insider dealing at prediction markets with a new set of warnings for employees.

The Hollywood Reporter reported last week that studios are issuing guidelines to staff to warn them off placing trades on exchanges including Kalshi and Polymarket.

Under the rules, placing trades on sensitive markets like film release dates will be explicitly outlawed. Likewise, any sharing of insider information will result in disciplinary action.

So serious is Hollywood taking the problem, companies are even setting up hotlines where employees can report suspected foul trades.

How Prediction Markets Changed the Industry

Traders at prediction markets now have an enormous range of event contracts to buy and sell. Not only are they restricted to buying the Knicks total points or price of gold, but they can also bet on the next James Bond or the winner of ‘Dancing with the Stars’.

While prediction markets argue event contracts offer flexibility and freedom for traders, they can also be ripe for manipulation.

For example, reports suggest that the battle to become the next 007 is in its final stages. However, one or two rogue casting directors would have insider knowledge about who is likely to get the part.

The much-debated release date for ‘Grand Theft Auto VI’ has attracted ‘Before’ trades totaling nearly $7 million since the market went live. Only Rockstar insiders truly know the actual date of the delayed game’s release.

While there’s no suggestion of wrongdoing at the prediction markets, it does leave open the possibility for insider trading on entertainment.

Biggest Entertainment Prediction Markets: November 2026

• 2027 Oscar Best Picture Winner: $11.6 million volume
• ‘Grand Theft Auto VI’ Release Date: $6.7 million volume
• ‘Dancing with the Stars’ Winner: $6 million volume
• ‘Next James Bond’: $3.9 million volume
• The Game Awards ‘Game of the Year’: $2.8 million volume

(Figures: Kalshi, November 9, 2026)

Insider Dealing Hits Headlines in 2026

The Hollywood Reporter said it had information that at least one film company had set up a hotline where employees could effectively rat on their colleagues. With productions usually top-secret, the last thing film companies want is for one rogue employee profiting from inside knowledge in plain sight.

It’s not just production company employees who are being prohibited from trading on prediction markets. The Hollywood Reporter also said that employees at its own publication have been banned from trading on markets, such as release dates and Oscar nominations.

Most of the big insider trading headlines this year have been made in the political world. However, one or two stories have emerged about entertainment insiders profiting from prior knowledge.

In February, video producer Artem Kaptur was referred to the CFTC after trading $4,000 in event contracts on what social media star MrBeast would do and say in his next show. Kalshi reported Kaptur to the prediction markets regulator and he was ultimately banned and fined $20,000.

Politics Still Creates the Most High-Profile Insider Deals

While Hollywood gets its house in order over the risks of insider dealing, the biggest stories of foul play come from U.S. politics.

The White House alone has produced several stories of insider dealing, with accompanying penalties much higher than those in entertainment.

In August, White House worker Gabriel Perez was fired and fined $172,000 for using his knowledge of a Donald Trump speech to place winning trades online. His insider knowledge of Trump’s words meant Perez could manipulate so-called “mention markets” to make a profit.

Last month, the shock announcement of Katie Zacharia as U.S. press secretary raised eyebrows. Zacharia was priced at just $0.01 on Kalshi to be named as Karoline Leavitt’s successor. However, that didn’t stop several unusual winning bets being placed on Zacharia’s appointment. Zacharia lasted just days in the job after an error-strewn first press conference.