Binance US to File to Obtain Prediction Markets License

The volatile prediction markets industry appears to have a new potential name joining, as Binance US has said it will apply for a prediction markets license with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

It will do so at an unpredictable time for the industry. While prediction markets are set to enter the lucrative American football season in September, states have been cracking down on efforts to skirt sports betting laws. That’s led the big players like Kalshi and Polymarket to geofence certain states as efforts play out in courts.

Just as importantly, the midterm elections are a mere three months away. With less than 100 days to go until elections occur, Binance US might soon face less friendly terrain for prediction market operators.

What Does Binance US Need to Do For a Prediction Markets License?

Although prediction markets have seemed like the Wild West, the CFTC does have a 23-point list of standards that Binance US must meet before legally offering event contracts. These include things such as record-keeping and customer safeguards, ensuring trades are protected.

Once approved, Binance would be able to begin offering event contracts. These would operate on a yes/no basis, allowing traders to make predictions on events. Traditionally, these were things such as crop and commodity futures, which have long fallen under the CFTC’s jurisdictions.

How Could Binance US Be Affected By Current Disputes?

That depends on how Binance intends to use its license. If it were to only offer swaps on traditional offerings, it wouldn’t risk violating any laws. However, the questions of sports betting and election futures have brought state laws into the discussion.

That has made this discussion far more uncertain. Although the CFTC has maintained that it has full jurisdiction over prediction markets, judges are increasingly rejecting that argument. In July in New York and Wisconsin, the CFTC tried that argument in federal court and lost both times.

The CFTC did win an injunction against Minnesota, blocking that state’s law against prediction markets. But that’s the only state that has attempted an outright ban of prediction markets. Minnesota has no legal sports betting, while New York and Wisconsin have both legalized the practice. Currently, 38 states have a form of legal sports betting.

Based off of recent results, federal judges seem to be forming a consensus opinion. The courts seem to be concluding that states can’t block prediction markets entirely, but they can force prediction markets to comply with state gambling laws. If that holds, that could negate several of the CFTC’s arguments.

Why Is Binance Pursuing the License?

After seeing prediction markets explode in the first half of 2026, other operators want a piece of the pie. Kalshi and Polymarket saw a combined $41 billion in trading in June, with Kalshi making up $31 billion of that.

While prediction markets are expected to eventually reach the United States Supreme Court, that wouldn’t occur until at least 2027, if not later. That gives operators such as Binance.US a chance to secure a license and get part of the action while it’s available.