Best Climate Prediction Markets 2026: Reviewing Platforms for Climate-Related Events

Betting on climate conditions is definitely one of the biggest and most challenging markets to try. One big reason for this is that not all sportsbooks tend to offer markets for such events. That doesn’t mean you can’t find one.

With prediction markets, you’re not placing bets, but rather trading on event contracts that have related outcomes on the climate conditions. In this guide, you’ll get to understand how climate predictions work and which trading platforms are the best for you to try and enjoy the experience of climate trading. Continue reading below to learn more.

The Top-Rated Climate Prediction Sites Right Now

#

Brand

Bonus

Features

Trade

1

Deposit $20 get $50

• Trade on climate-related outcomes with ease
• Simple yes/no contracts break complex topics down into accessible choices
• Market-driven pricing reflects broader global environmental trends

Trade Now Polymarket Review

Must be 18 years or older and have a legal, U.S. residential address within the applicable state, D.C., or U.S. territories. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV and OH.

2

$10 Bonus

• Includes markets on daily temperatures, rainfall totals, and global warming milestones
• Settlements are based on official data sources like the National Weather Service
• Prediction markets tied to climate events around the US

Trade Now Kalshi Review

T&Cs apply, 18+

3

100% up to $250

• Trade on climate-related outcomes as these markets continue to grow
• Straightforward yes/no contracts make even complex topics understandable to participate in
• Market-driven pricing mirrors evolving global environmental trends

Trade Now Crypto.com Review

T&Cs apply, 18+

List of All Climate Prediction Markets in the US

Top Trending Climate Markets Today

Check out the top three climate-trending markets today:

Temperature: Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

• Will it? Yes 33.5¢ / No 69.5¢

Prices via Kalshi, taken on June 09 at 08:30 AM ET

Energy: What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?

• Oil Yes 57¢ / No 47¢
• Coal Yes 15¢ / No 87¢
• Gas Yes 12¢ / No 91¢

Prices via Kalshi, taken on June 09 at 08:30 AM ET

Snow & Rain: Will it Rain in Houston this month?

• Above 5 inch Yes 81¢ / No 20¢
• Above 6 inches Yes 61¢ / No 40¢
• Above 7 inches Yes 44¢ / No 70¢

Prices via Kalshi, taken on June 09 at 08:30 AM ET

Quick facts about climate prediction markets

• Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood are the top platforms for climate predictions. Crypto.com is another top brand with event contracts in other major categories.
• Prediction markets use a yes-or-no format and offer a $1 payout per event contract if your prediction is correct.
• In addition to climate event contracts, you will find options for other types of events, including entertainment, politics, and sports.

What are climate prediction markets?

Climate prediction markets are trading platforms where you buy and sell event contracts related to climate conditions. Like any other prediction market, these brands use a binary format with Yes and No positions. Each position will have a price, which also reflects the likelihood of the event occurring. This is largely similar to how odds in sports and political prediction markets indicate the side most likely to win.

Here’s an example of a climate event contract: The Highest temperature in Austin today. Under this, you will find markets listed as follows:

From the example above, you can see that none of the prices exceeded $0.99 (99 cents). That’s because each event contract is valued between $0.1 and $0.99.

The example also clarified that these platforms are not sports prediction market sites because they do not operate like conventional online sportsbooks. They are simply trading platforms where you buy and sell contracts, but those tied to the climate.

Popular categories for climate trading

Climate prediction options cover a wide range of environmental and weather-related events, giving you multiple ways to apply your knowledge. Below are some of the most common categories for climate predictions:

The best prediction markets that offer climate event contracts

Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood are the top three platforms where climate prediction is allowed. Below are more details of these prediction markets, and some others you may want to check out:

Kalshi – Climate event contracts every day

Kalshi: Pros and Cons

• Regulated by the CFTC
• Broad category coverage (sports, politics, etc.)
• Transparent pricing and settlement

• Fee structure is fair but complex

Visit Kalshi

Kalshi stands out for various reasons, starting with its comprehensive coverage. Every day you log in to your account, you have climate event contracts for multiple outcomes related to hurricanes, daily temperatures, and natural disasters. Kalshi updates its climate contract prices in real time, using color indicators to indicate increases or decreases.

The platform also stands out because of its social features. There is an "Ideas" section where you can post your prediction and view the posts of other traders. Its customer service is another highlight, as it provides a comprehensive help centre and has a customer service team that you can contact via email.

$10 Bonus

Code: PREMARLINES Copied!

Trade Now

T&Cs apply, 18+

Polymarket — Polygon-based prediction market

Polymarket: Pros and Cons

• Android and iOS apps
• USDC stablecoin for trading
• Regulated by the CFTC

• No sign-up bonus

Visit Polymarket

At Polymarket, you can make fast deposits and withdrawals thanks to the Polygon blockchain the platform runs. Plus, it does not charge fees on any transactions or trades. This means that you can keep the total amount you make from your successful predictions.

We must admit that Polymarket does not have the most comprehensive selection of climate event contracts, but we like the diversity. You can predict temperature outcomes in specific states, hurricane activity, earthquake activity, and other climate-related events. The prices of event contracts can change at any time, and Polmarket updates its values instantly.

Deposit $20 get $50

Code: LINES Copied!

Trade Now Polymarket Promo

Must be 18 years or older and have a legal, U.S. residential address within the applicable state, D.C., or U.S. territories. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV and OH.

Robinhood — beginner-friendly mobile application

Robinhood: Pros and Cons

• Various contract categories
• Reward programs
• 24/7 live chat support
• Dedicated mobile app

• Some categories have limited markets

If you’re using trading platforms for the first time, Robinhood is an excellent choice. The mobile app has one of the most straightforward interfaces we have seen. This is in addition to educational tools and resources that can help first-timers get started on the platform. You can also trade directly on the web-based site if you prefer not to download the app.

The available incentives are another reason why Robinhood scores highly in our books. There is a welcome bonus and a referral offer for referring new players. Just note that these are usually limited-time bonuses, so always read the attached terms and conditions to know what applies. For climate event contracts, the prediction market is upcoming in this regard, but it still provides various options for users.

Crypto.com — another prediction market to consider

Crypto.com: Pros and Cons

• Offers a wide variety of markets
• Flexible contract values
• Over 350 cryptocurrencies accepted
• Beginner‑friendly interface

• Small trading & withdrawal fees

Visit Crypto.com

Crypto.com is another trading platform that is still working on its prediction offerings. As such, we were not surprised that it does not yet offer climate event contracts, though this is likely to change. However, it remains a reliable prediction platform and a strong alternative to sportsbooks that offer participating on culture and entertainment events.

The overall trading experience is top-tier thanks to the platform’s well-organized, intuitive interface. You can either use the web-based version or download the mobile application from your app store. Whatever your choice, you get a streamlined display, multiple cryptocurrency payment methods, instant deposits, and fast withdrawals.

Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade. 

100% up to $250

Trade Now Crypto.com Promo

T&Cs apply, 18+

Underdog Predict – Sports-first platform with limited climate coverage

Underdog Predictions Pros & Cons

• Great selection of sports prediction markets
• iOS and Android apps
• Fast withdrawals are available

• No promotions are available

Underdog Predict is best known for sports-focused prediction markets, so it is not the strongest option if you are looking specifically for climate event contracts. Its main strength is in sports predictions, with coverage across major leagues such as the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, soccer, tennis, and baseball. You can trade event contracts on team outcomes, player performance, and multi-team scenarios.

During our review, Underdog Predict stood out for its clean mobile app and simple event contract layout. The prediction market section is easy to find, and the app separates this product from Underdog’s other offerings, which helps keep the experience focused.

Climate predictions are not the main attraction here, so traders who want weather, temperature, hurricane, or natural disaster markets may prefer Kalshi or Polymarket. Still, Underdog Predict is worth including for users who want a sports-heavy prediction platform with strong mobile usability.

Trading derivatives involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. For more information visit: https://www.nadex.com/rules and https://underdogfantasy.com/rules. For Crypto.com Predictions, the term "pick" refers to a product traded on CDNA.  

FanDuel Predicts – Familiar app experience with growing prediction markets

FanDuel Predicts Pros & Cons

• New trader bonus
• 24/7 support
• Dedicated apps

• No existing trader promotions

FanDuel Predicts brings event contract trading to one of the most recognizable names in the US sports market. The platform’s strongest category is sports, with contracts tied to major leagues such as the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. You can usually find Yes/No event contracts based on game outcomes, season results, and other major sports-related questions.

When it comes to climate prediction markets, FanDuel Predicts is still developing. It is not yet as deep as Kalshi for weather, temperature, hurricane, or natural disaster contracts, but the platform is expanding its prediction market coverage over time.

The main appeal is usability. If you have used FanDuel products before, the layout will feel familiar, and the app is easy to navigate. FanDuel Predicts is a better fit for users who want a recognizable brand and a sports-first prediction experience, with climate markets likely to become more relevant as the product grows.

Fanatics Market – Sports-led prediction markets with wider categories developing

Fanatics Markets Pros & Cons

• Fantastic quality mobile apps
• Simple $1 trade contract setup
• Fully regulated by the CFTC
• Widely available in the US

• Still expanding its markets
• No desktop version

Fanatics Market is a mobile-first prediction market app with a clear sports focus. It covers event contracts across major sports, including football, basketball, baseball, hockey, and college sports, while also adding categories such as politics, finance, crypto, and culture. The platform is easy to use, with a clean dark interface and contract prices shown as probabilities.

For climate predictions, Fanatics Market is still more of a developing option than a category leader. You should not expect the same volume of weather or natural disaster contracts that you will find on Kalshi. However, as Fanatics Market continues to broaden its event contract offering, it could become more useful for users who want multiple categories in one app.

The platform offers a straightforward mobile experience, low entry points, and a recognizable brand behind it. For now, it works best as a sports-first prediction market with additional categories still filling out.

OG – Crypto.com-powered platform with broad event contract coverage

OG Pros & Cons

• Awesome mobile app with integrated live chat
• Wide variety of event contracts
• Easy pick-up-and-play mechanics
• Excellent refer-a-friend program

• Limited withdrawal payment methods

OG is a standalone prediction market platform powered by Crypto.com, offering event contracts across sports, politics, economics, culture, crypto, financials, and company news. Its strongest area is sports, but the wider category coverage makes it more flexible than some sports-only prediction apps.

Climate markets are not the main focus at OG right now, but the platform’s broader structure means weather or environment-related contracts could fit naturally alongside its economics and real-world event categories. Users who already like Crypto.com’s ecosystem may appreciate that OG shares some of that familiar finance-first feel, while adding a more dedicated prediction market experience.

The platform also stands out for its social features, including live chat on event pages, as well as a simple app layout that makes browsing active contracts easy. If you want a broad prediction market app with sports, culture, finance, and crypto all in one place, OG is worth watching.

Prediction Trading is facilitated through Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA). Foris DAX Inc. and Foris Inc. (d/b/a OG ) provide access to CDNA, a platform regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing users to trade derivatives in accordance with CDNA’s rules and regulations. 

Coinbase – Crypto-native platform with regulated event contracts

Coinbase is one of the most established crypto platforms in the US, and its prediction markets give users another way to trade on real-world outcomes alongside its wider crypto tools. Event contracts are offered through Coinbase Financial Markets, which is registered with the CFTC as a futures commission merchant and is an NFA member.

Coinbase is likely to appeal most to users who already prefer finance-focused platforms. Its prediction market product sits alongside a broader crypto ecosystem that includes spot trading, Advanced Trade tools, TradingView charts, APIs, and a familiar mobile app.

Climate event contracts are not the main reason to choose Coinbase right now, especially compared to dedicated platforms like Kalshi. However, the brand’s scale, regulatory structure, and crypto-native background make it a relevant option to monitor as prediction market categories expand. It is best suited to users who value familiarity, security, and a more finance-driven experience.

DraftKings Predict – Major brand with expanding prediction market categories

DraftKings Predict brings event contract trading into a platform many US sports fans already recognize. The product launched with a strong sports focus, covering categories such as college basketball, MLB, NBA, NHL, tennis, golf, UFC, soccer, and Formula 1. Contracts are structured around real-world outcomes, with prices moving based on market activity.

Climate markets are not the standout category at DraftKings Predict right now. The platform is more developed for sports outcomes, with availability depending heavily on location. In some states, sports markets are available, while in others only financial markets may be accessible, so users should check what is offered in their state before signing up.

The biggest advantage is familiarity. DraftKings Predict uses a clean app experience, supports standard payment methods, and does not require crypto. For users who want a mainstream brand with growing prediction market coverage, it is a notable option.

How to trade climate event contracts on prediction markets

Trading climate event contracts follows the same process as trading other event contracts. Here’s how it works:

1. Select a prediction market: We have recommended the best options with strong offerings. Choose from the list, launch the website, or download the app.

2. Register: Click the sign-up icon and fill out the registration form with your full name, email address, and phone number.

3. Verify your identity: After signing up, you must verify your identity by uploading copies of documents like a government-issued ID and a utility bill.

4. Fund your account: Open your dashboard, click on the deposit icon, choose a payment method, and use the platform’s details to complete the transfer. Your funds will reflect in your account within minutes.

5. Pick a climate event: Head over to the climate section and select an event. Choose Yes or No positions.

6. Submit your order: Enter the number of contracts you want, verify the details, and tap submit to place the order.

7. Sell or hold your positions: You can sell your positions before the event resolves. If you decide not to sell and your prediction is accurate, you will receive your win of $1 per contract.

3 tips to make the most of your climate predictions

Just like participating on economy prediction and politics on regular sportsbooks, your forecasts on prediction markets have to be accurate for you to get a payout. Now, you’re trying to predict climate outcomes, which can change at any time. As such, no approach will guarantee a win. However, you can boost your chances of success by using these tips:

Follow reputable climate data sources

Information is key to making climate predictions, and one of the best ways to access it is to follow well-known scientific organizations. Good examples include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). These organizations publish updates on climate-related issues such as temperature trends, precipitation, sea-level measurements, and overall atmospheric conditions.

Prediction platforms also openly state the sources they will use to resolve the event. For instance, at Kalshi, you can click on every climate event contract and scroll to the bottom, where you will find "Rules Summary," where the prediction market states its sources. Doing this helps you make more informed predictions.

Understand the difference between weather and climate

We have seen many traders confuse weather with climate trends, but there is a clear difference between the two. The weather covers atmospheric conditions over a short time frame, usually days or weeks, while the climate focuses on patterns that span years.

So, if your predictions are for short-term weather conditions like the daily or weekly temperature, focus on seasonal patterns. Meanwhile, if you're trying to predict outcomes for longer-term events such as the warmest decade on record, study yearly patterns.

Remain updated on climate-based policies

This is especially important if your predictions are based on things like emissions targets or climate regulations. Instead of merely keeping up with the atmosphere, follow political developments and international climate negotiations. You can also turn on notifications for platforms with this news, so you stay in the loop when new developments emerge.

Climate Prediction Market Sites Legality

Climate prediction markets are legal across most of the US and are among the least contested categories in the prediction market space. Like all prediction markets, they fall under the regulation of the CFTC, which means operators follow federal rules rather than seeking individual state licenses. Because of this, these prediction markets allow you to make predictions on the outcome of environmental and weather-related events.

Climate contracts have stayed largely outside the legal disputes that have dominated headlines, which have focused almost entirely on sports and political event contracts. States like Nevada, Massachusetts, and New Jersey have pushed back hard on sports contracts, arguing they are too similar to traditional sports betting, but climate and weather-related contracts haven't drawn that kind of heat.

That said, these climate contracts exist on the same platforms as the other contracts, so any shift in legality will still affect them too. The current direction is to move toward more formal rule making, which should bring more clarity across all event contract types, including climate.

Climate Prediction Regulation Timeline

March 2026

• The CFTC published a formal Notice of Proposed Rulemaking listing weather events as a specific category under review, the first time climate contracts received direct attention

February 2026

• The CFTC dropped its June 2024 proposed rulemaking, which had flagged certain contracts as against public interest for more targeted rule making

January 2026

• CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig announced a move toward "clear rules" for prediction markets, reaffirming the agency's exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts
• Global prediction market volume hit $37 billion monthly, with weather and climate contracts driving growth on platforms like Kalshi
• State legal battles stayed focused on sports and political contracts, leaving climate markets untouched

December 2026

• The CFTC certified around 1,600 event contracts in 2025, including weather events, a huge jump from prior years that opened the door for more climate listings
• Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com formed the Coalition for Prediction Markets, pushing for federal-only oversight that protects contracts from state interference
• Major prediction sites increased overall funding, boosting climate contract offerings across temperature, hurricane, and natural disaster markets

Hits and misses of making climate predictions on trading platforms

Making climate predictions is easy and enjoyable once you grasp the process. Still, there are downsides to the activity, which we’ve also noted below:

Pros and Cons

• Scientific data provides clear trading signals
• Both short-term and long-term options are available
• Simple trading format

• The event might take a long time to resolve

Final thoughts on climate prediction markets

You now understand that trading on the potential outcomes of climatic events is possible. The trading process is also simple: you select Yes or No positions, then decide whether to sell or hold your position until the event resolves. In case you’re wondering about the best trading platforms for these climate event contracts, you have Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood to choose from. These prediction markets are licensed and safe, and always payout your wins, provided you follow their terms and conditions.

Interested to try out the climate prediction markets? Click on the links on the banners of this page to get started.

Best Climate Prediction Markets on climate FAQs