Preakness Stakes Betting: Using Thoro-Graph Ratings To Handicap The Race
Bettors can use Thoro-Graph ratings, an advanced handicapping tool, to gain insight into betting Preakness odds. These numbers, like Preakness Beyer Speed Figures, seek to place a one-number value on a horse's performance. Thoro-Graph combines a lot of data points into its final horse ratings. Among them are time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved, weight carried, and the effect of wind. Let's take a look at Preakness Thoro-Graph numbers and see what they reflect about each horse.
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Top Thoro-Graph Numbers For 2024 Preakness Stakes Horses
First, let's go over some more notes about how Thoro-Graph numbers work.
Lower numbers mean a stronger race. Usually, the high-grade stakes races require a strong number -- around 0 for the Kentucky Derby, although the Preakness has a much smaller field. Therefore, horses that have run a race in that ballpark may have a leg up on the opposition.
Horses will also frequently make a jump of several points from one race to the next, though. That means any Preakness horses that have run around a 4 theoretically have what it takes.
| Post Position | Horse | Morning-Line Odds | Best Thoro-Graph | Other Notable Thoro-Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Mugatu | 20-1 | 7 | 11.25 |
| 2. | Uncle Heavy | 20-1 | 4.5 | 5.5* |
| 3. | Catching Freedom | 6-1 | 3.25 | 4.25 |
| 4. | Muth | SCR | ||
| 5. | Mystik Dan | 5-2 | 0.25 | 3 |
| 6. | Seize the Gray | 15-1 | 4.5 | 6.5 |
| 7. | Just Steel | 15-1 | 1 | 2.5 |
| 8. | Tuscan Gold | 8-1 | 4.5 | 5.25 |
| 9. | Imagination | 6-1 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
*Race didn't occur in the horse's 3-year-old season
With Muth and his elite Thoro-Graph numbers out of the way thanks to a fever, the way has cleared considerably for Mystik Dan to chase the second leg of the Triple Crown. Mystik Dan's most recent Thoro-Graph was the strongest of any of these horses, although Catching Freedom was just a notch behind in the Kentucky Derby. Mystik Dan also has the best race of any of the horses, though it was a few starts back.
However, note that Just Steel isn't far behind. The D. Wayne Lukas product has two excellent races with a 2.5 and a 1.
Deeper Dive Into Horses Of Note
Speaking of Just Steel, he has the worst Thoro-Graph of any of these horses this year. His 17th-place run in the Kentucky Derby -- 33 1/2 lengths back of Mystik Dan -- earned a hideous 18.25.
Prior to that, Just Steel had been consistently strong, however. So, perhaps that was a one-off.
Catching Freedom has improved in all four races he's run as a 3-year-old. His worst finish of those was fourth in the Kentucky Derby. So, he appears to be trending the right way toward a peak.
Imagination has repeated 5.5s in his 3-year-old season. He has the consistency, but does he have another gear? He might make for a sensible exotics add.
Finally, Mugatu appears to be a step slower than the rest of this field. His recent 7 was an outlier, with every other performance registering double-digits on the Thoro-Graph scale.
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