2025 Players Championship Tournament Preview: Everything You Need To Know About TPC Sawgrass

It’s one of the biggest golf weeks of the year on the PGA Tour. The Players Championship odds are the next stop for bettors at TPC Sawgrass. Compare The Players odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA Tour golf betting payouts. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Xander Schauffele project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.

Finally, my favorite event of the season is here. You could say I like this event… better than most.

The 2025 Players Championship at famed TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, marks the fourth signature event of the year, with none more significant thus far. While last week’s signature event at the Arnold Palmer Invitational featured a top-heavy collective of all the tour’s best, this week will step it up a notch further, with the top 144 on the PGA Tour teeing it up.

I’ve been fortunate to play TPC Sawgrass — in 2021 — and I always enjoy watching the game’s best navigate a familiar course.

TPC Sawgrass features water hazards on 17 holes. Pete Dye’s most famous design will bait players into taking on these hazards. The constant threat of hazards has resulted in incredibly volatile leaderboards. Of the top 20 players in SG: TOT over the last 36 rounds, only three have avoided missing the cut at this event in each of the previous three years (Scottie Scheffler, Sepp Straka, Maverick McNealy). With that in mind, embracing the volatility, diversifying exposure, and identifying low-owned pivot plays for DFS is a good idea.

Here’s a full look at everything to expect from 2025 Players Championship odds.

2025 OPENING PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: THE FAVORITES

Scroll to the bottom of this article to compare complete Players Championship outright odds at legal US sportsbooks. Find the favorites in Florida this week with odds shorter than 20-to-1.

THE FIELD AT A GLANCE

Always renowned for hosting a major-caliber field, The Players’ palpable stakes and historical context have earned the distinction of “The Fifth Major.” Admittedly, some of that luster feels lost on this event now, as a tournament known for hosting the convergence of all of the game’s best in one place will not do so again in 2025. In a year where players like Brian Campbell, Joe Highsmith, and Thomas Detry continued to emerge as first-time winners, the absence of Sawgrass stalwarts like Jon Rahm, Cam Smith, Bryson DeChambeau, and Sergio Garcia has never been more palpable. It feels wrong to designate it as a fifth major until LIV players find a path back to this event.

On the bright side, there is still no shortage of star power to headline in Ponte Vedra Beach, and while the PGA Tour “stars” have been slow to win events this year, they seemingly all enter in great all-around form. Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler will headline as the favorites and past champions for the second consecutive week. Other elite talents like Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, and Tony Finau enter this field of 144 in top form.

We hoped to see Tiger Woods appear this week after he withdrew early from the Genesis Invitational for personal reasons. A former champion (where is he not?), Woods could find TPC Sawgrass an ideal venue, given the palpable stakes, short and flat terrain, and volatility that has tended to offset the advantage of the typical favorites. We may have to wait until The Masters to see Tiger next.

Past champions returning to tee it up this week include Scheffler, Thomas, McIlroy, Si Woo Kim, Jason Day, Matt Kuchar, and Adam Scott. Last year, Scottie Scheffler joined Tiger Woods and Davis Love III as the only repeat winner in The Players’ history in the previous 30 years, demonstrating the volatility of this event. 

INTRODUCTION TO TPC SAWGRASS

Like the other Pete Dye designs we see on tour, TPC Sawgrass is a positional course. Its persistent water hazards, quirky green-side bunkers, and undulations mitigate the advantage of longer hitters, instead rewarding players with an elite approach and short game.

Once remnant swamp land, the foundational property for TPC Sawgrass was purchased in the 1970s for $1. The goal was to transform it into a state-of-the-art tournament golf course to host The Players Championship. Today, we see a modern marvel and the quintessential tournament stadium course with some of the most pristine manicuring in golf. The par-3 17th island green is perhaps the most recognizable hole in golf. The final three holes are my favorite closing stretch of any course on the PGA Tour and lay the stage for a late charge from chasers while bringing bogey into play with nervy shots over water from those trying to preserve a lead.

In a day and age when golf courses continue to act on the misconception that fans want to see more birdies, TPC Sawgrass is a consummate example of what we truly wish to: two-shot swing holes where great shots are rewarded with birdie-or-better opportunities and poor ones bring bogey-or-worse into play. That dynamic set the drama in 2024 for Scottie Scheffler to chase down Brian Harman and Xander Schauffele down the closing stretch.

Like the other courses in the Florida Swing, TPC Sawgrass is highly susceptible to inclement weather. The 2022 event virtually wiped half of the field out of contention by creating a severe advantage for players with morning-afternoon tee times. I will still remember Cam Smith’s clutch shot-making down the stretch, which included one of the most daring attacks of the Sunday pin on 17 in tournament history, even if the tour is intent on wiping that moment out of its flagship event’s history since he promptly left for LIV. Monitoring the weather closely this week will be key to seeing if wave advantages emerge.

The stakes don’t get much higher than a purse of $25 million (top prize $4.5 million) in one of the most challenging fields, with an electric crowd. At par 72, just under 7,200 yards, TPC Sawgrass rewards four days of well-rounded play. We’ve seen bombers like Rory McIlroy and Jason Day win as often as shorter specialists like Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, and Webb Simpson. Creativity and deft touch around the greens would seem the common through-line when looking down the list of annual contenders. Runoffs around the greens will give players more options to use their creativity, with many “Texas Wedges” drawn from these tight lies.

For TPC Sawgrass course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past Players winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our Players Championship odds page.

EVENT HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS

You’ll be hard-pressed to land on any player with conviction based on course history alone. Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Xander Schauffele are the only players in this week’s field who have finished in the top 20 in the last two years. Notables like Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tony Finau, Russell Henley, Patrick Cantlay, and Schauffele have all missed the cut here multiple times over the last five years. Looking at the favorites, Scheffler and McIlroy have each won The Players over the previous five years but do not have another finish inside the top 30, aside from their wins.

Despite the star power of winners here over recent years, just as many unheralded players have produced top-five finishes. David Lingmerth, Anirban Lahiri, Jim Furyk, Jhonattan Vegas, Eddie Pepperell, Brandt Snedeker, Jimmy Walker, Jason Dufner, Kyle Stanley, Kevin Chappell, Colt Knost and Ken Duke each have T6 finishes dating back to 2016. We should expect to see some parity on the leaderboard come Sunday. Longshot bets are still plenty viable for The Players Championship odds.

Others Excelling At The Players

The top 10 in course history at TPC Sawgrass consist of Hideki Matsuyama, Si Woo Kim, Scottie Scheffler, Tommy Fleetwood, Jason Day, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Brian Harman, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Ludvig Aberg. This illustrates a trend of veteran course managers with proven results in high-pressure events.

Seven players in this field have delivered multiple T10 finishes over the last five years: Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Si Woo Kim, Justin Rose, Brian Harman, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Viktor Hovland.

Eight players have avoided missing the cut in four consecutive trips to The Players: Daniel Berger, Si Woo Kim, Denny McCarthy, Patton Kizzire, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Brian Harman, Tom Hoge, and Nate Lashley.

Course Comps

Shorter Pete Dye courses correlate more than any other architect’s. For the most part, Dye courses share the same philosophy: force strategic, positional tee shots. Penalize wayward approaches with complex bunkering and tricky greenside runoffs. The top 10 players in SG: T2G on Pete Dye courses are Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im, JT Poston, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Daniel Berger, Kevin Yu, Brian Harman, and Carson Young.

Unpacking those Dye courses, Harbour Town, Stadium Course, and TPC River Highlands most closely resemble the layouts and design at TPC Sawgrass. Over the years, they have produced overlapping leaderboards of players who are accurate off the tee, possess strong irons, and show crafty around-the-green play. Webb Simpson, Si Woo Kim, and Matt Kuchar are approach specialists with crossover wins at The Players and these comp courses.

Cam Smith’s 2022 win furthered an interesting trend of crossover winners between this event and the Sony Open. Four of the last seven Sony Open winners are Players champions. The stakes and field strength of the two events could not be more different. However, both courses share exposure to gusting winds and emphasize positional tee shots on a Bermuda layout. If this trend continues, Nick Taylor and Hideki Matsuyama may emerge as top value picks this week.

I’m also looking closely at Sedgefield CC and Innisbrook (Copperhead) as other Bermuda courses that favor a similar profile. TPC Scottsdale features a similar assortment of risk-reward holes with abundant hazards. It has seen consistent success in recent years from players like Simpson, Matsuyama, Thomas, Kuchar, and Rickie Fowler. Finally, on a more secondary basis, East Lake and Colonial CC are worth referencing for similar positional play and moderate scoring difficulty.

Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Daniel Berger, Hideki Matsuyama, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns, and Keith Mitchell are the top 10 players in SG: TOT at these comp courses.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER FOR 2025 PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS

• SG: OTT / SG: OTT (positional courses)
• Fairway percentage / average distance from fairway edge / fairway bunker avoidance
• SG: APP 
• Birdies or better gained
• Bogey avoidance
• SG: ARG / scrambling
• Par 4: 450-500
• Par-5 scoring
• SG: putting (L36, Bermuda)
• SG: T2G (Pete Dye courses)
• SG: ball striking (<7,200 Yard Courses)
• Course history and comp course history

As usual with Pete Dye courses, distance is a nice bonus at TPC Sawgrass. Many neighboring water hazards and tight tree lines take the driver out of hand. With that in mind, I’m not looking too closely at driving accuracy. The field should play inherently more accurately when laying up off the tee. Players hit fairways at an above-average rate of 61% at TPC Sawgrass to support that claim.

Even still, I’ll look for players who excel in total driving to position themselves well and avoid the penalty areas. The top 10 players in weighted strokes off the tee (SG: OTT, SG: OTT on comp positional courses, fairways gained, fairway bunker avoidance, and the average distance from the edge of the fairway) are Scottie Scheffler, Sungjae Im, Alex Smalley, Tommy Fleetwood, Keith Mitchell, Daniel Berger, Thomas Detry, Keegan Bradley, Lee Hodges, and Patrick Cantlay.

As a workaround to SG: OTT to approximate tee shots on courses with a high volume of forced layups, I’m looking for players who rate well in SG: tee-to-green on courses under 7,200 yards. The top 10 from this category are Austin Eckroat, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Keith Mitchell, Viktor Hovland, Rico Hoey, Cameron Young, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Fishburn, and Jhonattan Vegas.

While distance doesn’t rule, it will help on the four par 5s. Those with plus distance can reach all four in two. The top 10 players in par-5 scoring entering this week are Taylor Pendrith, Billy Horschel, Joe Highsmith, Matt Schmid, Kurt Kitayama, Lee Hodges, Rico Hoey, Adam Scott, Erik van Rooyen, and Sepp Straka.

Approach & Short Game

The Players has bred a diverse cast of winning profiles over the years, but the common theme seems to be “fairway to green.” The best players on approach and around the green have stockpiled wins. Unsurprisingly, a player like Scottie Scheffler has managed to assert his dominance here more than any other course on tour. I’m emphasizing the best iron and wedge players with the medley of grass types on these over-seeded greens and several forced layups off the tee.

The top 10 players in SG: APP over the last 36 rounds are Justin Thomas, Joel Dahmen, Henrik Norlander, Sepp Straka, Nick Taylor, Jackson Suber, JJ Spaun, Maverick McNealy, Kurt Kitayama, and Lucas Glover. The top 10 players in SG: ARG over the same span are Cam Davis, Andrew Novak, Peter Malnati, Brice Garnett, Justin Thomas, Min Woo Lee, Patton Kizzire, Rory McIlroy, Beau Hossler, and Alex Smalley.

To wrap up, this week’s ideal player should be in the top 50 in SG: APP, SG: ARG, comp course history, and above average in weighted driving and par-5 scoring. Just five players fit that bill: Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Scott, Andrew Putnam, and JT Poston.

Correlation And TPC Sawgrass

Looking at the stat correlations this week for TPC Sawgrass, there are some notable shifts compared to the tour average. Here, P4: 450-500, par-5 scoring, and par-3 scoring each fall outside the top 10. Instead, good drives gained, and total par-4 scoring make the most notable vital jumps. Outside the top 10, we also see notable jumps in the importance of SG: P 15-20 ft and SG: ARG. Meanwhile, sand saves gained an approximately 200+ boost in importance.

There are just eight players who rate above average in each of the above top-10 stat categories for TPC Sawgrass: Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Cantlay, Adam Scott, Michael Kim, Andrew Putnam, Billy Horschel, Denny McCarthy, and Ben Griffin.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Tommy Fleetwood

Everyone on the PGA Tour is an unproven winner … until they aren’t. Of course, picking up your comically long overdue first PGA Tour win on the tour’s largest stage feels like a far-fetched storybook ending for Fleetwood. Still, I’ve felt optimistic this week about the Englishman’s changes. After all, if Thomas Detry can open the floodgates in TPC Scottsdale’s high-octane environment, what’s to stop Fleetwood — a top-10 OWGR player, seven-time international winner, and seven-time major top-five finisher — from having his breakthrough moment this week?

Ranking No. 4 in SG: ball striking over the last 36 rounds, Fleetwood may be the most reliable ball-striker in this field, as he enters this week having gained 1+ stroke in both approach and off the tee in each of his last 12 starts across the PGA Tour and DP World Tour. That form doesn’t show signs of stopping at this venue, as Fleetwood ranks No. 4 in total strokes gained at TPC Sawgrass throughout his career, with two top-10 finishes and just one missed cut over seven prior appearances.

TPC Sawgrass is a course where elite ball-strikers with a proven ability to scramble in difficult conditions have been able to separate themselves. Say what you will about Fleetwood’s ability to close under challenging conditions (I’m still not over his unraveling at the Paris Olympics, which seemed destined for silver all along). Still, a resume that includes seven top-fives in majors and four top-six finishes over his last seven starts cannot be ignored.

I have Fleetwood penciled in on my betting card this week, and I expect his chances will only improve if forecasted winds pick up.

2025 PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: DFS PLAYER POOL

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m also looking their way in the 2025 Players Championship odds. I’ve broken the list by actualized pricing/odds tier for DraftKings and rankings projections for Underdog Fantasy, with odds and pricing released earlier this week.

UNDERDOG GOLF DRAFT RANKINGS TIERS

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Tier 1

Scottie Scheffler
Collin Morikawa
Ludvig Aberg

Tier 2

Justin Thomas
Tommy Fleetwood
Hideki Matsuyama
Shane Lowry

Tier 3

Jason Day
Michael Kim
Adam Scott
Sepp Straka

Tier 4

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Ben Griffin
Daniel Berger
Denny McCarthy
Nick Taylor

Tier 5

Patton Kizzire
Kevin Yu
Tom Hoge
Andrew Putnam
Alex Smalley
Taylor Moore

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THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN

For my model this week, I’m prioritizing SG: APP, SG: ARG, comp course history, SG: OTT (<7,200 courses) and fairway proximity, followed by a more balanced mix of SG: P (L36, Bermuda), par-5 scoring, bogey avoidance, and birdies or better gained.

Model Favorites

Surprisingly, it is not Scottie Scheffler but Hideki Matsuyama who claims the No. 1 spot in my Players Championship model this week. Matsuyama has gotten off to a great start this season, kicking off The Sentry with an exclamatory, record-breaking victory. Improved putting and overall health have explained Matsuyama’s hot start to the year. However, it may be masking some otherwise “down” ball-striking metrics relative to what we’re used to seeing from Matsuyama. He is a name to watch this week, ranking No. 1 in course history despite still chasing his first career Players Championship win.

After Matsuyama, my model’s top 10 is rounded out by Scottie Scheffler, Russell Henley, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, Adam Scott, Sepp Straka, Ben Griffin, and Rory McIlroy.

I have not placed any future bets on The Players to date. Still, with initial odds already out, I see myself gravitating toward a card with exposure to at least two of Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Nick Taylor, Denny McCarthy, or Austin Eckroat among longshots. I’ll likely wait for the weather forecast to settle in and for the odds to readjust on Monday before locking in my 2025 Players Championship bets.

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your 2025 Players Championship bets!

2025 PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS TABLE

Bet on any golfer by clicking on The Players Championship odds in the table below:

Golfers with over 100-1 odds can be found above when full odds come out on Monday.

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