Philadelphia Phillies Odds: MLB Win Totals, Projections, Possible Bets
Welcome to TheLines.com's 2024 Spring Training preview of MLB odds. We'll preview every team's 2024 season with a focus on MLB win totals and World Series odds. We'll evaluate each team's roster and see if there are any wagers worth considering. Today, we'll look at Philadelphia Phillies odds. Click this link to catch up on our other 2024 MLB betting previews.
A second straight deep postseason run ended in heartbreak for the Phillies, as they lost back-to-back home games to the underdog Diamondbacks. Few teams should look more familiar in 2024.
Will the Phillies finally break through?
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Phillies Odds: An Overview And What The Projections Say
First, let's compare the market on Phillies odds to publicly available projections from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
- 2023 wins: 90
- Market wins: /
- FanGraphs wins: 85
- Baseball Prospectus wins: 84.5
The market likes the Phillies a lot more than the projections do. In fact, the market thinks Philadelphia will put up a legitimate challenge to the Braves' juggernaut in the NL East, while the projections think the Braves can waltz to the division title.
One factor in the projections' skepticism is that the Phillies enjoyed tremendous health in 2023. They hardly needed to dip into their bench, and the arms stayed incredibly healthy. That's difficult to repeat, and the Phils will hope they can repeat the fit since they didn't make any notable additions.
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Evaluating The Phillies Roster
Bats And Defense
Philly's offense caught fire in the second half, and they finished solidly above average with a 105 wRC+.
That was a little lighter than the team likely hoped, but down seasons from JT Realmuto and Trea Turner dragged things down. Turner should be a decent bet to bounce back, but Realmuto's age (33) brings real concern. His framing fell off a cliff last year, so he'll need to fix that if he hopes to return to stardom.
A full season from Bryce Harper would help, and he seems like he's taking well to first base.
That's a welcome development for the Phils, as it will allow them to consign Kyle Schwarber to DH duties. The 872 innings Schwarber spent in the outfield last year are about 850 too many. He cost the team many runs.
Nick Castellanos did the same in right. In fact, the team's defense landed somewhere between bad and brutal depending on your metric of choice. That doesn't seem likely to change unless Realmuto reverses his decline. There are a few standouts here in Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, and Bryson Stott.
Pitching
Philadelphia led MLB in pitching fWAR last year, and it wasn't by a little bit. The distance between the Phillies and the second-place Rays was similar to the distance between the Rays and 11th-place Milwaukee. Better still for Philly fans, the credit was evenly distributed between the rotation and the pen. Both units landed in the top three.
That's going to be tough to repeat. With the arms the Phils will run out there, it isn't out of the question.
Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are back to pace the rotation. Both figure prominently in Cy Young odds.
The support crew of Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez range from credible to intriguing. Sanchez was a revelation. In his first extended taste of MLB, Sanchez fired a 3.44 ERA with peripherals that supported it.
Everyone should be in his prime aside from Wheeler, who is probably still in the gentle decline phase in his age-34 campaign.
Craig Kimbrel moved on from the bullpen, but it doesn't figure to suffer much, if at all. Jose Alvarado moves into the closer role. He dominated last season and doesn't look miscast. Jeff Hoffman, Gregory Soto, Seranthony Dominguez, and Matt Strahm provide high-quality depth. This should be one of MLB's best groups again.
Possible Bets On Phillies Odds
Aside from a subpar defense, the Phillies have an excellent team. The pitching is elite, and Alvarado should transition seamlessly into leading the pen and closing out wins. The bats should be well above average.
Defense remains the only real concern, but there are enough strong gloves to keep things afloat. And there's always the chance Realmuto simply wasn't healthy or had a down season. If his framing bounces back, things will look a lot rosier.
The problem is that they still have to deal with Atlanta. Playoff mastery of the Braves aside, it's hard to see how the Phillies can close the 11-win game from last season. They're probably looking at another wild card run, which suits them just fine if the last two seasons are any judge.
Given how bullish the market is on the Phils, I can't really get on board with anything here. I would guess they finish under their win total but over their projected numbers, so I'm not seeing anything I'm looking to bet here.
Best of luck if you decide to bet on the Phillies odds this spring.
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