NFL Betting History Indicates Alarming Trend For Eagles Odds
After going 13-3 in the 2022 NFL regular season en route to a Super Bowl appearance, Eagles odds sit at ) in Super Bowl futures. Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts also possesses a short price tag of in NFL MVP odds. Nevertheless, the recent runners-up for the Lombardi Trophy have struggled to deliver upon the betting market’s expectations. As the Eagles’ training camp kicked off Tuesday, let’s break down this recent history.
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eagles odds: Historical factor
Over the last eight seasons, five of the Super Bowl losers subsequently went under their win total. Generally speaking, a team’s success raises its market rating the following season. That said, the 2022 Bengals’ win total avoided any sort of collapse, cashing their AFC North odds before almost knocking off the Chiefs in the conference title game.
| Year | Team | Next Year’s Record |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Eagles | ??? |
| 2021 | Bengals | 12-5 |
| 2020 | Chiefs | 12-5 |
| 2019 | 49ers | 6-10 |
| 2018 | Rams | 9-7 |
| 2017 | Patriots | 11-5 |
| 2016 | Falcons | 10-6 |
| 2015 | Panthers | 6-10 |
For starters, the Eagles managed to only face a pair of top-10 DVOA teams in the 2022 regular season. The first matchup came against the Lions, who had yet to evolve into a near playoff team. They even avoided the Dak Prescott-led Cowboys the first time around before playing them again in Week 16 — with Hurts sidelined this time around.
But Philly will square off with seven of those top-10 DVOA units this season, including rematches against Kansas City and San Francisco. Granted, any of those teams could undergo negative variance, so not all of their ratings will stabilize themselves. Couple that with another “leisurely” path to begin the schedule (Patriots, Vikings, Buccaneers, Commanders, Rams), and the Eagles may steer clear of a hangover.
However, the latter part of the slate involves consecutive games against the Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, and Seahawks, opponents that appear quite strong on the surface.
The Unknown Variables
The Eagles’ structural losses haven’t been magnified yet. Their core player personnel remains intact, but both coordinators departed for head coaching jobs. Shane Steichen is off to Indianapolis while defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon landed in Arizona.
A Super Bowl representative losing its play-callers isn’t as common as one would expect, either. Aforementioned Cincinnati retained each one from the 2021 campaign. Even with now-Philadelphia OC Brian Johnson receiving an in-house promotion, there’s no telling the drop-off from Steichen just yet.
Speaking of Bengals odds, they’ve benefited from injury luck in each of the last two years. Similarly, the Eagles’ offense was one of the healthiest units amid their NFC championship run. Keep in mind, Hurts’ elbow injury occurred when Philly had virtually clinched the top seed already in the conference. Nor was it an issue come the postseason.
These factors may wind up favoring the Eagles once again. But regarding their NFL win total of , there isn’t much room for error if you are betting the over.
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