The Philadelphia Eagles could be in a worse spot. Coming off an appearance in Super Bowl LVII, they have two first-round draft picks, including the 10th overall selection from the New Orleans Saints. The Eagles locked up their quarterback and have the foundation of a terrific defense, despite free agency departures. This team has plenty of options when it comes to the 2023 NFL Draft. What do Eagles draft odds suggest about the route they’ll go at the end of this month?
Options for this team include trading back, which we won’t address today, but did want to put out there. Trading partners will arise should one of the top four quarterbacks fall to the 10th spot, prompting a team from the back half of the first round to trade up for them. But today, we’re going to assume Philly picks 10th and 30th.
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Eagles Free Agency Recap
Losses: DL Javon Hargrave, OG Isaac Seumalo, LB Kyzir White, LB TJ Edwards, RB Myles Sanders, S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S Marcus Epps
Additions: LB Nicholas Morrow, S Terrell Edmunds, RB Rashaad Penny, QB Marcus Mariota, CB Greedy Williams, EDGE Kentavius Street
A ton from the Eagles’ terrific defense last season left in free agency. Most notably, DL Javon Hargrave, LB TJ Edwards, and both starting safeties departed for other teams. They also lost backup tackle Andre Dillard and starting guard Isaac Seumalo.
In response, Philly signed LB Nicholas Morrow from the Chicago Bears and safety Terrell Edmunds from the Pittsburgh Steelers to fill some of their losses. But gaps still exist, particularly on defense, that the Eagles may address in the NFL Draft.
Eagles NFL Draft Needs
Team needs via CBS’ Josh Edwards.
Safety
Despite not being a premium position like pass rusher, quarterback, and tackle, the Eagles’ top need this NFL Draft is safety. Both starters from the 2022 defense departed in free agency. They signed Terrell Edmunds from the Steelers, but Edmunds lines up primarily as a box safety (32.4%). Reed Blakenship – who made multiple late-season plays – is listed as the starting free safety, per Ourlads. Though it’s unlikely a safety goes 10th to the Eagles (+2500 at DraftKings Sportsbook), it’s possible a player like Alabama’s Brian Branch goes No. 30.
Offensive Guard
Another non-premium position of need for the Eagles – a common theme from a Super Bowl contender ( to win Super Bowl LVIII) – is offensive guard. Guard would likely be a position first addressed at No. 30, with a true interior guy like Florida’s O’Cyrus Torrence likely being available there. A couple of potential tackles that could move inside include Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski (likely a top-10 pick) and North Dakota State’s Cody Mauch (a Day 2 pick).
Running Back
In most years, running back might be a late-round pick. Perhaps even this year that’ll be the case, with a deep cast coming in this season. Jahmyr Gibbs (Alabama), Kenny McIntosh (Georgia), and Israel Abanikanda (Pitt) are Day 2 possibilities. However, Texas star Bijan Robinson would necessitate the No. 10 pick should the Eagles want to swing for the fences.
Eagles Draft Odds: Team To Draft Bijan Robinson
ATL (8) | Bet now +150 | Bet now +210 |
PHI (10,30) | Bet now +300 | Bet now +600 |
HOU (2, 12) | Bet now +500 | Bet now +1000 |
DAL (26) | Bet now +1000 | Bet now +1100 |
CHI (9) | Bet now +1000 | Bet now +1500 |
LAC (21) | Bet now +1200 | Bet now +1800 |
WAS (16) | Bet now +1200 | Bet now +900 |
DET (6,18) | Bet now +1200 | Bet now +1400 |
TEN (11) | Bet now +1300 | Bet now +1400 |
NE (14) | Bet now +1300 | Bet now +1800 |
Rashaad Penny is a good football player, hands down. His issue throughout his career, previously with the Seattle Seahawks, was frequent injury. But the Eagles’ approach for the past few seasons has been running back by committee, led by Myles Sanders (who signed with the Panthers). There’s a clear vacancy for a lead back in Philadelphia, should the team want to address that.
Robinson is the most talented running back prospect since Saquon Barkley at least. He could also become the highest-drafted back since Barkley, the last running back selected inside the top 20. Bijan Robinson draft odds slightly favor the Cowboys (+550) and Chargers (+600), who pick at No. 27 and No. 22, respectively. The Eagles (+650) come in just after.
ESPN’s Todd McShay mocked Robinson 18th to the Lions in his latest mock draft after sending him to the Eagles at No. 10 in his previous edition. Other mocks pair Robinson with the Patriots (No. 14) and Bills (No. 28).
However, sportsbooks are bearish on the Eagles to pick a running back at No. 10 (+1200 to be first pick). With an organization as analytics-driven and without a history of picking non-premium positions highly, it’s unlikely Robinson goes No. 10.
Who Else Might Philadelphia Go With?
So, if not Bijan Robinson and if not a non-premium position like guard or safety, then whom?
At No. 10, it’s likely the Eagles go with the best player available, regardless of position. Players like Oregon corner Christian Gonzalez, Iowa pass rusher Lukas Van Ness, and Clemson defensive lineman Myles Murphy may be candidates here. DraftKings Sportsbook lines the Eagles with a 54.6% implied probability (-120) of drafting a defensive lineman (interior or edge rusher).
Van Ness and Murphy are commonly-mocked players around this position, with McShay sending Van Ness to the Eagles. Georgia’s Nolan Smith has an outside chance of being a surprise selection here, according to Daniel Jeremiah’s evaluations.
Mel Kiper Jr. sends Skoronski to the Eagles at No. 10 in his latest mock draft. DraftKings lines an offensive lineman as the second-most likely selection here for Philly (+175, 36.4% implied probability). Other possibilities on the offensive line include Broderick Jones (Georgia) and Paris Johnson Jr. (Ohio State), should Johnson fall this far.
Eagles Draft Odds: Outside Shot To Consider
Part of the prices for offensive and defensive line is the abundance of players at those positions. However, I believe value lies at another position: Cornerback (+350). At the top, Philadelphia is locked and loaded with a good group of corners – Darius Slay, James Bradberry, and Avonte Maddox at nickel. Slay and Bradberry will both play at 30 years or older this season while Maddox is 27. Greedy Williams, whom the Eagles signed from the Browns this offseason, is a frequent injury report presence.
Both Gonzalez and Illinois corner Devon Witherspoon are top-10 candidates this coming draft. Many sources pinpoint Witherspoon as highly as sixth to Detroit but Gonzalez is marked as potentially the top corner prospect. He scored a 9.99 on the Relative Athletic Score (RAS) and stands 6-foot-1, a great size for the current cornerback.
Though the Eagles are set today at corner, don’t be surprised to see one come off the board at No. 10. With so few positions of need on the roster, the Eagles could set up their secondary for the future.
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